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“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States”

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  • Camyar, Isa
  • Ulupinar, Bahar

Abstract

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is empirically associated with a variety of economic and financial outcomes. However, its sources remain understudied. In this study, we analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of geopolitical crises on EPU by using evidence from the United States (U.S.) for the period of 1985-2019. We present a time series analysis, specifically the autoregressive distributive lag model, on a monthly dataset with the indicators of EPU and geopolitical crises. We find that the impact of geopolitical crises on EPU is conditional and temporal, meaning that it is significant only if the U.S. is directly involved or an active participant in them and materializes over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Camyar, Isa & Ulupinar, Bahar, 2025. "“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States”," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:79:y:2025:i:3:s1090944325000389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101061
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General

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