IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v5y2001i3p155-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Emerging Markets: Investing with Political Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Ephraim Clark

    (Middlesex University, U.K.)

  • Radu Tunaru

    (Middlesex University, U.K.)

Abstract

This paper presents a model that measures the impact of political risk on portfolio investment when the political risks are multivariate and correlated across countries. The multivariate approach generalizes the single country model but retains most of its characteristics in terms of its ability to price political risk based on the stochastic process of exposure to loss and the expected frequency of loss causing events. The methodology is compatible with modern portfolio theory, straightforward to apply and can accommodate the traditional techniques in political risk assessment for the estimation of the relevant parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Ephraim Clark & Radu Tunaru, 2001. "Emerging Markets: Investing with Political Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 155-173, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:5:y:2001:i:3:p:155-173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~796~p172uqnlmdjnj1rr211di1dqpofh4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/702.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clark, Ephraim, 1998. "Political Risk in Hong Kong and Taiwan: Pricing the China Factor," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 276-291.
    2. Clark, Ephraim, 1997. "Valuing political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 477-490, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wi Saeng Kim & Esmeralda Lyn & Edward Zychowicz, 2003. "Is the Source of FDI Important to Emerging Market Economies? Evidence from Japanese and U.S. FDI," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(3-4), pages 107-130, September.
    2. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta, 2011. "Are ASEAN stock market efficient? Evidence from univariate and multivariate variance ratio tests," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201113, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    3. Smimou, K., 2014. "International portfolio choice and political instability risk: A multi-objective approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 546-560.
    4. Gupta, R. & Donleavy, G.D., 2009. "Benefits of diversifying investments into emerging markets with time-varying correlations: An Australian perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 160-177, April.
    5. Manfred Fruhwirth & Paul Schneider & Markus S. Schwaiger, 2007. "Timing Decisions in a Multinational Context: Implementing the Amin/Bodurtha Framework," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(3-4), pages 157-178, September.
    6. Lorne Switzer & Alan Picard, 2015. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Momentum, Liquidity, and Expected Stock Returns in Developed and Emerging Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(3), pages 169-221, September.
    7. Vishaal Baulkaran & Nathaniel C. Lupton, 2020. "U.S. FDI and Shareholder Rights Protection in Developed and Developing Economies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 24(3-4), pages 155-182, September.
    8. Nabamita Dutta, 2012. "Effect of the Political Regime on Asset Returns in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 135-156, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    2. Udo Broll & B. Michael Gilroy & Elmar Lukas, 2007. "Managing Credit Risk With Credit Derivatives," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-13.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. Fernando A. C. C. Fonte & Dalila B. M. M. Fontes, 2007. "Optimal investment timing using Markov jump price processes," FEP Working Papers 245, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Radu Tunaru & Ephraim Clark, 2005. "The Evolution of International Political Risk 1956-2001," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 37, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Qian, Xianhang & Qiu, Shanyun, 2023. "Political risk and corporate international supply chain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Di Corato, Luca & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "Farmland Investments in Africa: What’s the Deal?," Working Paper Series 2013:10, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    8. Lucía Morales & Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2018. "The Impact of Brexit on the Stock Markets of the Greater China Region," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Di Corato, Luca, 2013. "Profit sharing under the threat of nationalization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315.
    10. Brockett Patrick L. & Leng Chao-Chun & Wen Min-Ming & Yang Charles C., 2012. "Political Risk Insurance and Foreign Direct Investments," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Brown, Christopher L. & Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Lord, A. Wayne, 2015. "Country-risk measurement and analysis: A new conceptualization and managerial tool," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 246-265.
    12. Petre Brezeanu & Lucian Ionescu & Cristina Maria Triandafil, 2009. "Country Risk Within CEE Area: Empirical Perspective on Corporate Cost of Equity," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 81-86.
    13. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 920-936.
    14. Ahmed Al Samman & Mostafa Kotb GabAlla, 2020. "Impact of Country Risk and Return on FPI," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 57-68.
    15. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    16. Alexander Braun & Marius Fischer, 2018. "Determinants of the Demand for Political Risk Insurance: Evidence from an International Survey," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 397-419, July.
    17. Tirtiroglu, Dogan & Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Lel, Ugur, 2004. "Political uncertainty and asset valuation: Evidence from business relocations in Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2237-2258, September.
    18. Gilroy, Bernard Michael & Lukas, Elmar, 2006. "The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 447-465, July.
    19. Sophie Nivoix & Dominique Pepin, 2009. "Intérêts et limites de la globalisation comme processus créateur d'investissement," Post-Print hal-00963658, HAL.
    20. Lukas, Elmar, 2007. "Dynamic market entry and the value of flexibility in transitional international joint ventures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 91-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    geometric Brownian motion; insurance policy; Poisson arrival process; portfolio investment; political risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:5:y:2001:i:3:p:155-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.