IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v64y2025i3d10.1007_s11156-024-01330-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does firm-level political risk influence earnings management?

Author

Listed:
  • Jairaj Gupta

    (University of York)

  • Narendra Nath Kushwaha

    (Amrut Mody School of Management, Ahmedabad University)

  • Xia Li

    (Birmingham City University)

  • Tahera Ebrahimi

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

Abstract

This study diverges from mixed findings in the literature on political uncertainty and earnings management by reporting a significant positive association between the firm-level political risk (FLPR) measure proposed by Hassan et al. (Q J Econ 134(4):2135–2202, 2019) and both accrual-based and real earnings management. This aligns with the predictions of agency theory and the political cost hypothesis, indicating that firms exposed to higher political risk are more prone to heightened earnings manipulation. Additionally, we find that in the face of increased political risk, firms tend to substitute accrual-based earnings management with real earnings management, which is relatively harder to detect. This study further identifies a non-linear ‘U’-shaped association between FLPR and both accrual-based and real earnings management, suggesting significant manipulation at both low and high political risk levels, with the least manipulation at a moderate level. This non-linear association is primarily observed in firms that are smaller in size, pay lower abnormal compensation to their CEOs and are less likely to be monitored by lenders. Thus, emphasising the role of external monitoring mechanisms in driving the non-linear association between FLPR and earnings management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jairaj Gupta & Narendra Nath Kushwaha & Xia Li & Tahera Ebrahimi, 2025. "Does firm-level political risk influence earnings management?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1165-1198, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:64:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01330-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-024-01330-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-024-01330-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-024-01330-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard & Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Pornsit Jiraporn & Napatsorn Jiraporn, 2021. "Does firm‐level political risk influence corporate social responsibility (CSR)? Evidence from earnings conference calls," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 721-741, November.
    2. Demerjian, Peter R. & Owens, Edward L., 2016. "Measuring the probability of financial covenant violation in private debt contracts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 433-447.
    3. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    4. Clatworthy, Mark A. & Peel, Michael J., 2021. "Reporting accountant appointments and accounting restatements: Evidence from UK private companies," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    5. Çolak, Gönül & Durnev, Art & Qian, Yiming, 2017. "Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2523-2564, December.
    6. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    7. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    8. Yangyang Chen & C. S. Agnes Cheng & Shuo Li & Jingran Zhao, 2021. "The monitoring role of the media: Evidence from earnings management," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3-4), pages 533-563, March.
    9. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    10. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    11. Luigi Zingales, 2000. "In Search of New Foundations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1623-1653, August.
    12. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    13. Hall, Steven C., 1993. "Political scrutiny and earnings management in the oil refining industry," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 325-351.
    14. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    15. Adams, Renée B. & Ragunathan, Vanitha & Tumarkin, Robert, 2021. "Death by committee? An analysis of corporate board (sub-) committees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1119-1146.
    16. Patten, Dennis M. & Trompeter, Greg, 2003. "Corporate responses to political costs: an examination of the relation between environmental disclosure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 83-94.
    17. Clark, Ephraim, 1997. "Valuing political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 477-490, June.
    18. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    19. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    20. Kelly Huang & Brent Lao & Gregory McPhee, 2017. "Does Stock Liquidity Affect Accrual-based Earnings Management?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3-4), pages 417-447, March.
    21. Zhi‐Yuan Feng & Hua‐Wei Huang, 2021. "Corporate governance and earnings management: A quantile regression approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5056-5072, October.
    22. Zingales, Luigi & Dyck, Alexander, 2002. "The Corporate Governance Role of the Media," Working Papers 184, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    23. Paul Hribar & D. Craig Nichols, 2007. "The Use of Unsigned Earnings Quality Measures in Tests of Earnings Management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1017-1053, December.
    24. Chino, Atsushi, 2021. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Cost of Equity: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 569-606, March.
    25. Cohen, Daniel A. & Zarowin, Paul, 2010. "Accrual-based and real earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 2-19, May.
    26. Adut, Davit & Duru, Augustine & Galpin, Wendy Liu, 2011. "The role of corporate governance in meeting or beating analysts' forecast," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 188-198, March.
    27. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    28. Zingales, Luigi & Dyck, Alexander, 2002. "The Corporate Governance Role of the Media," CEPR Discussion Papers 3630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Han Yu & Abraham Y. Nahm & Zengji Song, 2022. "Turnover of local government core officials, political connections and the investment and financing of private‐sector enterprises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3490-3509, July.
    30. Ilia Dichev & John Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Shiva Rajgopal, 2016. "The Misrepresentation of Earnings," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 22-35, January.
    31. Ryan, Harley Jr. & Wiggins, Roy III, 2004. "Who is in whose pocket? Director compensation, board independence, and barriers to effective monitoring," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 497-524, September.
    32. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:537-600 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Boland, Matthew & Godsell, David, 2020. "Local soldier fatalities and war profiteers: New tests of the political cost hypothesis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1).
    34. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    35. Adams, Renée B. & Ferreira, Daniel, 2009. "Women in the boardroom and their impact on governance and performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 291-309, November.
    36. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne & Larcker, David F., 2008. "The power of the pen and executive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-25, April.
    37. Hussein A. Abdou & Nouran N. Ellelly & Ahmed A. Elamer & Khaled Hussainey & Hassan Yazdifar, 2021. "Corporate governance and earnings management nexus: Evidence from the UK and Egypt using neural networks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6281-6311, October.
    38. Jong†Hag Choi & T. J. Wong, 2007. "Auditors' Governance Functions and Legal Environments: An International Investigation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 13-46, March.
    39. Malek El Diri, 2018. "Introduction to Earnings Management," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-62686-4, December.
    40. Timothy C.G. Fisher & Ilanit Gavious & Jocelyn Martel, 2019. "Earnings Management in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, June.
    41. Guifeng Shi & Jianfei Sun & Li Zhang, 2018. "Product market competition and earnings management: A firm†level analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5-6), pages 604-624, May.
    42. Cain, Matthew D. & McKeon, Stephen B. & Solomon, Steven Davidoff, 2017. "Do takeover laws matter? Evidence from five decades of hostile takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 464-485.
    43. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    44. Ferri, Fabrizio & Zheng, Ronghuo & Zou, Yuan, 2018. "Uncertainty about managers’ reporting objectives and investors’ response to earnings reports: Evidence from the 2006 executive compensation disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 339-365.
    45. Katherine A. Gunny, 2010. "The Relation Between Earnings Management Using Real Activities Manipulation and Future Performance: Evidence from Meeting Earnings Benchmarks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 855-888, September.
    46. Fields, Thomas D. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Vincent, Linda, 2001. "Empirical research on accounting choice," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 255-307, September.
    47. Priyanka Kher & Dongwook Chun, 2020. "Policy Options to Mitigate Political Risk and Attract FDI," World Bank Publications - Reports 34380, The World Bank Group.
    48. Boone, Audra L. & Mulherin, J. Harold, 2017. "Who monitors the monitor? The use of special committees by target firms in corporate takeovers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 388-404.
    49. Dan S. Dhaliwal & Cristi A. Gleason & Lillian F. Mills, 2004. "Last†Chance Earnings Management: Using the Tax Expense to Meet Analysts' Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 431-459, June.
    50. Brick, Ivan E. & Chidambaran, N.K., 2010. "Board meetings, committee structure, and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 533-553, September.
    51. Kim, Kyonghee & Mauldin, Elaine & Patro, Sukesh, 2014. "Outside directors and board advising and monitoring performance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 110-131.
    52. Braam, Geert & Nandy, Monomita & Weitzel, Utz & Lodh, Suman, 2015. "Accrual-based and real earnings management and political connections," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 111-141.
    53. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Godsell, David & Huang, Kelly & Lao, Brent, 2023. "Managers’ rank & file employee coordination costs and real activities manipulation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    3. Chan, Kam Fong & Marsh, Terry, 2021. "Asset prices, midterm elections, and political uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 276-296.
    4. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Vo, Hong & Phan, Anh & Trinh, Quoc-Dat & Vu, Linh Nhat, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect trade credit and firm value in Korea? A comparison of chaebol vs. non-chaebol firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 474-491.
    7. Jo, Eun Hye & Lee, Jung Wha, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and managerial short-termism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    10. Xin Chen & Haina Shi & Gaoguang Zhou & Xindong Zhu, 2024. "Dance with wolves: firm-level political risk and mergers and acquisitions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 715-752, August.
    11. Afzali, Mansoor & Ҫolak, Gönül & Fu, Mengchuan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    13. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Özgür, Arslan-Ayaydin & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2021. "Earnings Management Methods and CEO Political Affiliation," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021017, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    15. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    17. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Almaghrabi, Khadija S., 2021. "Borrowing during periods of policy uncertainty: The role of foreign lenders," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. El Diri, Malek & Lambrinoudakis, Costas & Alhadab, Mohammad, 2020. "Corporate governance and earnings management in concentrated markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 291-306.
    20. Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Jiraporn, Pornsit & Kyaw, Khine & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2024. "Climate change exposure and corporate culture: A text-based approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:64:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01330-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.