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Consumption Dynamics under Time-Varying Unemployment Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Harmenberg, Karl

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Ôberg, Erik

    (Uppsala University)

Abstract

Private consumption demand falls in response to increased unemployment risk during a recession, as households increase their precautionary savings and postpone irreversible durable investments. The postponement effect is seven times as large as the precautionary-savings effect in a calibrated buffer-stock savings model. In consequence, anticipation of future unemployment risk is more important than realized unemployment shocks in accounting for durable expenditure dynamics during recessions, while the opposite is true for nondurables. The importance of anticipation of future unemployment risk also means that having many ’hand-to-mouth’ households, who do not respond to changes in income risk, significantly dampens the demand response for durables to an adverse labor market shock. We find that the model elasticities of durable and nondurable expenditures with respect to unemployment risk are close to what we estimate in micro survey data.

Suggested Citation

  • Harmenberg, Karl & Ôberg, Erik, 2019. "Consumption Dynamics under Time-Varying Unemployment Risk," Working Papers 8-2019, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2019_008
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Chafwehe, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Consumption Dynamics, and the Secondary Market for Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 202-243, April.
    2. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    3. Jeppe Druedahl, 2021. "A Guide on Solving Non-convex Consumption-Saving Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 747-775, October.
    4. Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2019. "The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk," Working Paper 2019/17, Norges Bank.
    5. Arnone, Massimo & Costantiello, Alberto & Drago, Carlo & Leogrande, Angelo, 2025. "ESG Drivers of Financial Development: A Multimethod Analysis of Domestic Credit to the Private Sector," MPRA Paper 127044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Massil, Joseph Keneck & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Yogo, Urbain Thierry, 2025. "Uncertainty and household consumption in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 51-64.
    7. Javier Gardeazabal & Eduardo Polo-Muro, 2022. "Cultural expenditure of those who enter (or exit) unemployment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 46(4), pages 571-596, December.
    8. Li, Yabo & Zhang, Zhen & Teng, Rui & Fan, Shuo, 2025. "Dose tariff exposure stimulate city crimes? Evidence from China-US trade war," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1563-1579.
    9. Kim, Seonghoon & Wang, Lanjie, 2024. "Navigating Unemployment without Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from Singapore," IZA Discussion Papers 17299, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Harmenberg, Karl, 2021. "Aggregating heterogeneous-agent models with permanent income shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Karl Harmenberg & Raysa Lizarraga, 2025. "Earnings dynamics and top-earnings inequality," Working Papers 01/2025, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Jin Cao & Chao Cui & Valeriya Dinger & Martin B. Holm & Shulong Kang, 2025. "Identifying the Depreciation Rate of Durables from Marginal Spending Responses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 223-241, February.
    14. William Du & Adrian Monninger & Xincheng Qiu & Tao Wang, 2025. "Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 25-23, Bank of Canada.
    15. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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