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Ambiguous Volatility, Possibility and Utility in Continuous Time

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  • Larry Epstein
  • Shaolin Ji

Abstract

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both the drift and volatility of the driving process. At a technical level, the analysis requires a significant departure from existing continuous time modeling because it cannot be done within a probability space framework. This is because ambiguity about volatility leads invariably to a set of nonequivalent priors, that is, to priors that disagree about which scenarios are possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2011. "Ambiguous Volatility, Possibility and Utility in Continuous Time," Papers 1103.1652, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.1652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
    2. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
    3. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    4. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    5. Marcel Nutz, 2011. "A Quasi-Sure Approach to the Control of Non-Markovian Stochastic Differential Equations," Papers 1106.3273, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    6. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    7. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 68-123, March.
    8. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    9. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    10. Marcel Nutz, 2010. "Random G-expectations," Papers 1009.2168, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    11. Peng, Shige, 2008. "Multi-dimensional G-Brownian motion and related stochastic calculus under G-expectation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(12), pages 2223-2253, December.
    12. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    13. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    14. Karandikar, Rajeeva L., 1995. "On pathwise stochastic integration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-18, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
    2. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2014. "Non-Implementability of Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Continuous Trading under Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1409.6940, arXiv.org.
    3. Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamai, 2015. "Moral hazard under ambiguity," Papers 1511.03616, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    4. repec:spr:joptap:v::y::i::d:10.1007_s10957-018-1230-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    6. Frank Riedel, 2011. "Finance Without Probabilistic Prior Assumptions," Papers 1107.1078, arXiv.org.
    7. Meglena Jeleva & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," Post-Print halshs-01109639, HAL.
    8. Burzoni, M. & Riedel, Frank & Soner, H.M., 2017. "Viability and arbitrage under Knightian Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 575, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    9. Qian Lin, 2015. "Dynamic indifference pricing via the G-expectation," Papers 1503.08628, arXiv.org.
    10. Shige Peng & Shuzhen Yang & Jianfeng Yao, 2018. "Improving Value-at-Risk prediction under model uncertainty," Papers 1805.03890, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    11. Frank Riedel, 2015. "Financial economics without probabilistic prior assumptions," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91, April.
    12. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:668-688 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hu, Mingshang & Ji, Shaolin, 2017. "Dynamic programming principle for stochastic recursive optimal control problem driven by a G-Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 107-134.
    14. Huang, Helen Hui & Zhang, Shunming & Zhu, Wei, 2017. "Limited participation under ambiguity of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-143.

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