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Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time

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  • Larry G. Epstein
  • Shaolin Ji

Abstract

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging arguments. Ambiguous volatility implies market incompleteness that rules out perfect hedging. Consequently, hedging arguments determine prices only up to intervals. However, sharper predictions can be obtained by assuming preference maximization and equilibrium. Thus we apply the model of utility to a representative agent endowment economy to study equilibrium asset returns. A version of the C-CAPM is derived and the effects of ambiguous volatility are described.

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  • Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time," Papers 1301.4614, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.4614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Skiadas, Costis, 1994. "Continuous-time security pricing : A utility gradient approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 107-131, March.
    2. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    3. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
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    5. Andrew W. Lo & Mark T. Mueller, 2010. "WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!," Papers 1003.2688, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    6. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk & Robert Turley, 2012. "An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    10. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    11. Joerg Vorbrink, 2010. "Financial markets with volatility uncertainty," Papers 1012.1535, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2010.
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    13. Peter Carr & Roger Lee, 2009. "Volatility Derivatives," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-339, November.
    14. Epstein, Larry G. & Ji, Shaolin, 2014. "Ambiguous volatility, possibility and utility in continuous time," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 269-282.
    15. Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2008. "An Equilibrium Guide To Designing Affine Pricing Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 519-543.
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    18. Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
    19. Vorbrink, Jörg, 2017. "Financial markets with volatility uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 441, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    20. Willard, Gregory A & Dybvig, Philip H, 1999. "Empty Promises and Arbitrage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 807-834.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2014. "Non-Implementability of Arrow-Debreu Equilibria by Continuous Trading under Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1409.6940, arXiv.org.
    2. Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamai, 2015. "Moral hazard under ambiguity," Papers 1511.03616, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    3. Epstein, Larry G. & Ji, Shaolin, 2014. "Ambiguous volatility, possibility and utility in continuous time," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 269-282.
    4. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    5. Marcel Nutz, 2014. "Superreplication under model uncertainty in discrete time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 791-803, October.
    6. repec:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-016-0979-y is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:kap:annfin:v:13:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-016-0291-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tian, Dejian & Tian, Weidong, 2014. "Optimal risk-sharing under mutually singular beliefs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-49.
    9. Yuhong Xu, 2014. "Robust valuation and risk measurement under model uncertainty," Papers 1407.8024, arXiv.org.
    10. Meglena Jeleva & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," Post-Print halshs-01109639, HAL.
    11. Qian Lin, 2015. "Dynamic indifference pricing via the G-expectation," Papers 1503.08628, arXiv.org.
    12. Amine Ismail & Huy^en Pham, 2016. "Robust Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix ," Papers 1610.06805, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    13. Frank Riedel, 2015. "Financial economics without probabilistic prior assumptions," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91, April.
    14. repec:bla:irvfin:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:205-233 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:668-688 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Vorbrink, Jörg, 2014. "Financial markets with volatility uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-78.
    17. Hu, Mingshang & Ji, Shaolin, 2017. "Dynamic programming principle for stochastic recursive optimal control problem driven by a G-Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 107-134.
    18. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2017. "Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 91-103.
    19. Huang, Helen Hui & Zhang, Shunming & Zhu, Wei, 2017. "Limited participation under ambiguity of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-143.

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