Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments
Model uncertainty, in the context of derivative pricing, can be defined as the uncertainty on the value of a contingent claim resulting from the lack of precise knowledge of the pricing model to be used for its valuation. We introduce here a quantitative framework for defining model uncertainty in option pricing models. After discussing some properties which a quantitative measure of model uncertainty should verify in order to be useful and relevant in the context of risk measurement and management, we propose a method for measuring model uncertainty which verifies these properties and yields numbers which are comparable to other risk measures and compatible with observations of market prices of a set of benchmark derivatives. We illustrate the difference between model uncertainty and the more common notion of "market risk" through examples. Finally, we illustrate the connection between our proposed measure of model uncertainty and the recent literature on coherent and convex risk measures.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Publication status:||Published in Mathematical Finance, Wiley, 2006, 16 (3), pp.519 - 547. <10.1111/j.1467-9965.2006.00281.x>|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00002695|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002.
"Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
- Zengjing Chen & Larry G. Epstein, 2000. "Ambiguity, risk and asset returns in continuous time," RCER Working Papers 474, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Adam, Klaus, 2004. "On the relation between robust and Bayesian decision making," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2105-2117, September.
- Klaus Adam, 2001. "On the Relation between Robust and Bayesian Decision Making," CSEF Working Papers 68, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Adam, Klaus, 2003. "On the Relation between Robust and Bayesian Decision Making," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Carr, Peter & Geman, Helyette & Madan, Dilip B., 2001. "Pricing and hedging in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 131-167, October.
- M. Avellaneda & A. Levy & A. ParAS, 1995. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities in markets with uncertain volatilities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 73-88.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Marco Avellaneda & Antonio ParAS, 1996. "Managing the volatility risk of portfolios of derivative securities: the Lagrangian uncertain volatility model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 21-52. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00002695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.