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Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Malak Kandoussi

    (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay)

  • François Langot

    (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. We develop a quantitative version of the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides (DMP) model, in which uncertainty shocks hit the economy. Given the significant nonlinearities of the DMP model, we show that the introduction of uncertainty shocks allows this textbook model to account for observed characteristics of the U.S. labor market dynamics, with reasonable values for calibrated parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics," Post-Print hal-04204670, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04204670
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110760
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04204670v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Dajčman Silvo & Kavkler Alenka & Levenko Natalia & Romih Dejan, 2022. "Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 47-70, December.
    4. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 13439, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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