IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13439.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers

Author

Listed:
  • Kandoussi, Malak

    (University of Evry)

  • Langot, François

    (University of Le Mans)

Abstract

We develop a multi-sectoral matching model to predict the impact of the lockdown on the US unemployment, considering the heterogeneity of workers to account for the contrasted impacts across various types of jobs. We show that separations and business closures that hit the workers with the first level of education explains the abruptness of the unemployment rise. The existence of significant congestion externalities in the hiring process suggests that a comeback to the pre-crisis unemployment level could be reached in 2024 in a scenario with a double wave. In the same scenario, a calibration on French data leads to more pessimistic forecasts with a comeback to the pre-crisis unemployment level expected until 2027.

Suggested Citation

  • Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 13439, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13439
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13439.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    3. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Gorry, Aspen & Munro, David & vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Experience, skill composition, and the persistence of unemployment fluctuations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael J. Pries, 2004. "Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of Recurring Job Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(1), pages 193-215.
    7. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    8. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jitender Singh, 2023. "Unemployment Fluctuations in Urban Labour Market in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(1), pages 81-111, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2021. "On the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2021-01, TEPP.
    2. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Joao Capella-Ramos & Romina Guri, 2022. "Firm adaptation in COVID-19 times: The case of Portuguese exporting firms," GEE Papers 0169, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2022.
    4. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2021. "Job search during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2020. "Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 371-382, June.
    8. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin, 2023. "Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 58-76, July.
    9. Caperna, Giulio & Colagrossi, Marco & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2020. "Googling Unemployment During the Pandemic: Inference and Nowcast Using Search Data," Working Papers 2020-04, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    10. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The inexorable recoveries of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 15-25.
    11. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Helge Braun, 2006. "(Un)Employment Dynamics: The Case of Monetary Policy Shocks," 2006 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Marcelo Arbex & Michael Batu & Sidney Caetano, 2020. "Stay At Home! Macroeconomic Effects of Pandemic-Induced Job Separation Shocks," Working Papers 2002, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    14. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    15. Abi Adams‐Prassl & Teodora Boneva & Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh, 2020. "Furloughing," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 591-622, September.
    16. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 402-414, September.
    17. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    18. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," Working Papers 2021-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2022.
    19. Toufique, M. M. K., 2020. "Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China," EconStor Preprints 222456, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Michael D. Noel, 2022. "Competitive survival in a devastated industry: Evidence from hotels during COVID‐19," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-24, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; unemployment dynamics; search and matching; worker heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.