IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13439.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers

Author

Listed:
  • Kandoussi, Malak

    (University of Evry)

  • Langot, François

    (University of Le Mans)

Abstract

We develop a multi-sectoral matching model to predict the impact of the lockdown on the US unemployment, considering the heterogeneity of workers to account for the contrasted impacts across various types of jobs. We show that separations and business closures that hit the workers with the first level of education explains the abruptness of the unemployment rise. The existence of significant congestion externalities in the hiring process suggests that a comeback to the pre-crisis unemployment level could be reached in 2024 in a scenario with a double wave. In the same scenario, a calibration on French data leads to more pessimistic forecasts with a comeback to the pre-crisis unemployment level expected until 2027.

Suggested Citation

  • Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "The Lockdown Impact on Unemployment for Heterogeneous Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 13439, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13439
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13439.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    3. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Gorry, Aspen & Munro, David & vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Experience, skill composition, and the persistence of unemployment fluctuations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael J. Pries, 2004. "Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of Recurring Job Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 193-215.
    7. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 40(01), pages 1-31, May.
    8. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malak Kandoussi & François Langot, 2021. "On the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2021-01, TEPP.
    2. Sotiris Blanas & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "Covid-induced Economic Uncertainty, Tasks, and Occupational Demand," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The inexorable recoveries of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 15-25.
    5. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2021. "Job search during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Michael D. Noel, 2022. "Competitive survival in a devastated industry: Evidence from hotels during COVID‐19," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-24, February.
    7. Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 371-382, June.
    8. Giofré, Maela, 2021. "COVID-19 stringency measures and foreign investment: An early assessment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 402-414, September.
    10. Caperna, Giulio & Colagrossi, Marco & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2020. "Googling Unemployment During the Pandemic: Inference and Nowcast Using Search Data," Working Papers 2020-04, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    11. Michał Bilczak, 2021. "Crisis diagnosis in cross-border region: lessons from the pandemic," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(2), pages 223-237, December.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Helge Braun, 2006. "(Un)Employment Dynamics: The Case of Monetary Policy Shocks," 2006 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Bloise, Francesco & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Predicting the spread of COVID-19 in Italy using machine learning: Do socio-economic factors matter?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 310-329.
    15. López Prol, Javier & O, Sungmin, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption," MPRA Paper 101649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Marcelo Arbex & Michael Batu & Sidney Caetano, 2020. "Stay At Home! Macroeconomic Effects of Pandemic-Induced Job Separation Shocks," Working Papers 2002, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    17. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Abi Adams‐Prassl & Teodora Boneva & Marta Golin & Christopher Rauh, 2020. "Furloughing," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 591-622, September.
    19. Cristiano Codagnone & Francesco Bogliacino & Camilo Gómez & Frans Folkvord & Giovanni Liva & Rafael Charris & Felipe Montealegre & Francisco Lupiañez Villanueva & Giuseppe A. Veltri, 2021. "Restarting “Normal” Life after Covid-19 and the Lockdown: Evidence from Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 241-265, November.
    20. Toufique, M. M. K., 2020. "Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China," EconStor Preprints 222456, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; unemployment dynamics; search and matching; worker heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.