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Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy

Author

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  • Jasova, Martina
  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Supera, Dominik

Abstract

We show that a reduction in lender of last resort (LOLR) policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment. We exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future LOLR funding for banks as a quasi-natural experiment. Using micro-level data on banks, firms and loans in Portugal, we generate cross-sectional variation in banks’ exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy - the gap between private market and central bank security valuations - plays a key role in the propagation of the shock to lending and the real economy. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58, G21, G32

Suggested Citation

  • Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212521
    Note: 1774743
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    Cited by:

    1. David P. Glancy & Felicia Ionescu & Elizabeth C. Klee & Antonis Kotidis & Michael Siemer & Andrei Zlate, 2024. "The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Martina Jasova & Caterina Mendicino & Ettore Panetti & José-Luis Peydró & Dominik Supera, 2021. "Monetary policy, labor income redistribution and the credit channel: Evidence from matched employer-employee and credit registers," Economics Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    3. Corradin, Stefano & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2022. "LOLR policies, banks’ borrowing capacities and funding structures," Working Paper Series 2738, European Central Bank.
    4. Diana Bonfim & Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2023. "On-Site Inspecting Zombie Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2547-2567, May.
    5. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2023. "Measuring sovereign bond fragmentation in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Antonis Kotidis & Dimitris Malliaropulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "Public and private liquidity during crises times: evidence from Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks," Working Papers 304, Bank of Greece.
    7. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alves, Nuno & Bonfim, Diana & Soares, Carla, 2021. "Surviving the perfect storm: The role of the lender of last resort☆," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    9. Gil Nogueira & Luísa Farinha & Laura Blattner, 2021. "Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel," Working Papers w202120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Laeven, Luc & Maddaloni, Angela & Mendicino, Caterina, 2022. "Monetary and macroprudential policies: trade-offs and interactions," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 92.
    11. Barbiero, Francesca & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & Toczynski, Jan, 2022. "Targeted monetary policy, dual rates and bank risk taking," Working Paper Series 2682, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank credit; central bank liquidity; firm-level employment and investment; haircut subsidy; policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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