IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v71y2025i6p5288-5307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit Market Frictions and the Linkage Between Dispersion and Macro Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Jun E. Li

    (Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom)

Abstract

Cross-sectional dispersion and macro uncertainty (volatility of aggregate economic variables) are conceptually distinct. However, empirically, they both comove and are countercyclical. This paper builds a general equilibrium model and demonstrates that credit market frictions allow cross-sectional dispersion to drive time-varying macro uncertainty endogenously. In the model, as firm-level productivity becomes more dispersed, more firms are pushed to the left tail of the productivity distribution, resulting in more defaults and a depletion in aggregate net worth. This mechanism generates countercyclical leverage and aggregate volatility. The model implies that the government can inject equity in economic downturns to stabilize aggregate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun E. Li, 2025. "Credit Market Frictions and the Linkage Between Dispersion and Macro Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(6), pages 5288-5307, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:71:y:2025:i:6:p:5288-5307
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.00166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00166
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00166?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:71:y:2025:i:6:p:5288-5307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.