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Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Mariano Max Croce
  • Wenxi Liao
  • Samuel Rosen

Abstract

Focusing on both micro and aggregate U.S. data, we show the existence of a significant link between aggregate uncertainty and reallocation of resources away from R&D-intensive capital. This link is important because a decrease in the aggregate share of R&D-oriented capital forecasts lower medium-term growth. In a multi-sector production economy in which (i) growth is endogenously supported by risky R&D investments, and (ii) the representative agent is volatility-risk averse and has access to other safer technologies that do not support growth, uncertainty shocks have a first-order negative impact on medium-term growth and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Mariano Max Croce & Wenxi Liao & Samuel Rosen, 2019. "Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth," NBER Working Papers 26248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26248
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
    3. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.
    4. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2020. "Financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty: a case for timely policy action," Working Papers 687, DNB.
    5. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang, 2021. "Turbulent Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 2021-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    8. Sirine Zribi, 2022. "Effects of social influence on crowdfunding performance: implications of the covid-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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