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Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Monirul Islam
  • Kazi Sohag

Abstract

Trade policy plays a pivotal role in shaping import and export volumes within the global economy. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has posed significant challenges to the smooth flow of mineral resource trade. This study aims to analyse the consequences of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and various measures of geopolitical risk (GPR), including terror threats, war threats and nuclear threats (NCT), on Russian mineral exports (MEX). The analysis covers the period from January 2013 to December 2021. By employing sophisticated quantile regression methodologies, such as the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC) techniques, this study uncovers a compelling interaction between TPU and Russian MEX across different market conditions. Interestingly, TPU exerts a significantly positive impact on the export volumes of Russian mineral resources. In contrast, the presence of GPRs, particularly warfare and terrorism, proves to be detrimental to MEX during bullish market phases across various memory horizons. Surprisingly, NCT stimulates mineral trade during bearish market conditions, both in monthly and annual timeframes. These findings remain robust and consistent even when the CQC technique is employed. In light of these pressing geopolitical challenges, this study underscores the importance of developing sustainable mineral trade policies that foster enhanced global cohesion. It is crucial to address these challenges effectively to ensure the smooth and efficient flow of mineral resources in the international trade landscape. JEL Codes: C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 60(3), pages 267-290, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:60:y:2025:i:3:p:267-290
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325241276252
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q27 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade

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