IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v293y2024ics0360544224002524.html

The nexus between Russian uranium exports and US nuclear-energy consumption: Do the spillover effects of geopolitical risks matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Islam, Md. Monirul
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Samargandi, Nahla

Abstract

Geopolitical risks significantly impact global energy consumption, hindering material trade and influencing policy decisions. Specifically, the Russian uranium supply for US nuclear energy production faces geopolitical risks despite being exempt from ongoing sanctions imposed by Western and European entities during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We investigate the effect of global, Russian, and US geopolitical risks on US nuclear-energy consumption driven by Russian uranium exports from January 1996 to December 2019. The cross-quantilogram analysis reveals a negative influence of global geopolitical risks on Russian uranium export-driven US nuclear-energy consumption in lower quantiles, and a positive effect in medium to upper quantiles under long memory. Interestingly, Russian geopolitical risks do not have any significant effect, while US geopolitical risks positively impact from the medium to upper quantiles in extended memory. Hence, our policy suggestion is solely concerned with adequately dealing with global geopolitical risks under the global governance platform to enhance worldwide uranium trade for nuclear energy consumption in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Islam, Md. Monirul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Samargandi, Nahla, 2024. "The nexus between Russian uranium exports and US nuclear-energy consumption: Do the spillover effects of geopolitical risks matter?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:293:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224002524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224002524
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130481?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    3. Zirui Wang & Wanli Xing, 2022. "Study on the Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Global Uranium Resource Trade from the Perspective of a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    4. Price, Terence, 1984. "Uranium supplies and nuclear energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 266-270, September.
    5. Alexander Cimprich & Vanessa Bach & Christoph Helbig & Andrea Thorenz & Dieuwertje Schrijvers & Guido Sonnemann & Steven B. Young & Thomas Sonderegger & Markus Berger, 2019. "Raw material criticality assessment as a complement to environmental life cycle assessment: Examining methods for product‐level supply risk assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(5), pages 1226-1236, October.
    6. Ghaboulian Zare, Sara & Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Mehdi & Stewart, Rodney A. & Rahman, Anisur, 2022. "Examining wind energy deployment pathways in complex macro-economic and political settings using a fuzzy cognitive map-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    7. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    8. Wang, Chen & Raza, Syed Ali & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday & Yi, Sun & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "The roles of hydro, nuclear and biomass energy towards carbon neutrality target in China: A policy-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    9. Soytas, Ugur & Magazzino, Cosimo & Mele, Marco & Schneider, Nicolas, 2022. "Economic and environmental implications of the nuclear power phase-out in Belgium: Insights from time-series models and a partial differential equations algorithm," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 241-256.
    10. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Umar, Muhammad & Zhang, Weike, 2021. "Does renewable energy redefine geopolitical risks?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Dungan, K. & Gregg, R.W.H. & Morris, K. & Livens, F.R. & Butler, G., 2021. "Assessment of the disposability of radioactive waste inventories for a range of nuclear fuel cycles: Inventory and evolution over time," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Rangan Gupta & Giray Gozgor & Huseyin Kaya & Ender Demir, 2019. "Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: evidence from the gravity model," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 515-530, December.
    15. Helbig, Christoph & Wietschel, Lars & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "How to evaluate raw material vulnerability - An overview," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-24.
    16. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Winner or loser? The bidirectional impact between geopolitical risk and energy transition from the renewable energy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Dittmar, Michael, 2012. "Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 35-40.
    18. Azam, Anam & Rafiq, Muhammad & Shafique, Muhammad & Zhang, Haonan & Yuan, Jiahai, 2021. "Analyzing the effect of natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy on GDP and carbon emissions: A multi-variate panel data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and mineral-driven renewable energy generation in China: A decomposed analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Scholten, Daniel & Bosman, Rick, 2016. "The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 273-283.
    21. Lauran Van Oers & Jeroen Guinée, 2016. "The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, March.
    22. Wang, Qiang, 2009. "China needing a cautious approach to nuclear power strategy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2487-2491, July.
    23. Rigby, Aidan & Lindley, Ben & Cullen, Jonathan, 2023. "An exergy based assessment of the efficiency of nuclear fuel cycles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    24. Gabriel, Sophie & Baschwitz, Anne & Mathonnière, Gilles & Fizaine, Florian & Eleouet, Tommy, 2013. "Building future nuclear power fleets: The available uranium resources constraint," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 458-469.
    25. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Carbon Financial Markets: a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 03/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    26. Considine, Timothy J., 2019. "The market impacts of US uranium import quotas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    27. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    28. Hassan, Syed Tauseef & Batool, Bushra & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2023. "Impact of economic complexity index, globalization, and nuclear energy consumption on ecological footprint: First insights in OECD context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    29. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    30. Shih, Yi-Hsuan & Shi, Nian-Xun & Tseng, Chao-Heng & Pan, Shu-Yuan & Chiang, Pen-Chi, 2016. "Socioeconomic costs of replacing nuclear power with fossil and renewable energy in Taiwan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 369-381.
    31. Ksenija Hanaček & Joan Martinez-Alier, 2022. "Nuclear supply chain and environmental justice struggles in Soviet and Post-Soviet countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 966-994, October.
    32. Viacheslav Pershukov & Vladimir Artisyuk & Andrey Kashirsky, 2022. "Paving the Way to Green Status for Nuclear Power," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-10, July.
    33. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    34. Streimikiene, Dalia, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1005-1014.
    35. López, Luis & Castro, Liliana N. & Scasso, Roberto A. & Grancea, Luminita & Tulsidas, Harikrishnan & Haneklaus, Nils, 2019. "Uranium supply potential from phosphate rocks for Argentina's nuclear power fleet," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 397-404.
    36. Viorel Mionel & Oana Mionel & Alexandra Moraru, 2016. "The African Uranium. Geoeconomic Competition and Geopolitical Risks," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 8(1), pages 181-185, March.
    37. Zhang, Tianhao & Dong, Zhe & Huang, Xiaojin, 2024. "Multi-objective optimization of thermal power and outlet steam temperature for a nuclear steam supply system with deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    38. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    39. Lin, Boqiang & Ullah, Sami, 2024. "Modeling the impacts of changes in nuclear energy, natural gas, and coal in the environment through the novel DARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    40. Tahmina Sultana & Md. Moniruzzaman & Mrittika Shamsuddin & Mohammad Tareque, 2019. "Endogenous growth model of a labour-abundant and land-scarce economy," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 21(2), pages 309-328, December.
    41. Ahmad, Salman & Nadeem, Abid & Akhanova, Gulzhanat & Houghton, Tom & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus, 2017. "Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable and nuclear resources for electricity generation in Kazakhstan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1880-1891.
    42. Khosravi, A. & Olkkonen, V. & Farsaei, A. & Syri, S., 2020. "Replacing hard coal with wind and nuclear power in Finland- impacts on electricity and district heating markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    43. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag & Faheem ur Rehman, 2022. "Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    44. Eskinder D. Gemechu & Christoph Helbig & Guido Sonnemann & Andrea Thorenz & Axel Tuma, 2016. "Import-based Indicator for the Geopolitical Supply Risk of Raw Materials in Life Cycle Sustainability Assessments," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(1), pages 154-165, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yingyue Sun & Yu Wei & Lin Ren, 2026. "The Effect of Geopolitical Risk on the Volatility of Connectedness Between Carbon Neutrality and Energy Markets: Evidence From China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 2568-2592, April.
    2. Zhao, Jing & Tang, Ou & Zhang, Qin & Zhou, Dequn, 2025. "Can reshoring policies hinder China's photovoltaic module exports? A dynamic perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    3. Dai, Tao & Li, Xiaohan & Sui, Yang & Zhu, Jiahao & Jia, Xiaolong & Jin, Yi, 2026. "A new dynamic Bayesian network model for fault diagnosis of complex systems with high uncertainty in nuclear power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    4. De Crescenzo, Ivan & Doroshenko, Lyubov & Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro, 2026. "Energy, uncertainty and geopolitics: A SHAP-based tail analysis of spot and futures uranium markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Fan, John Hua & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Indriawan, Ivan & Todorova, Neda, 2026. "Boom, bust, and Fission: A Deep Dive into Uranium price explosiveness," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Huang, Anzhong & Dai, Luote & Ali, Sajid & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2024. "From funds to footprints: Unravelling the asymmetric association between nuclear energy technology and environmental quality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    7. Tianpeng Wang & Ziqi Wu & Wei Xiong & Xunzhang Pan & Xuan Ye & Xiaoguang Liu, 2025. "The Impact of Uranium Resource Constraints on China’s Nuclear Power Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Mirzat Ullah & Kazi Sohag & Farrukh Nawaz & Oleg Mariev & Umar Kayani & Igor Mayburov & Svetlana Doroshenko, 2024. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Crypto and Conventional Financial Assets during Financial Crises: Evidence from the Russian Financial Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 472-483, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Zhi-Wen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2025. "The impact of geopolitical risks on the renewable energy transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Pavel Talamanov, 2024. "Research on the Impact of Geopolitical Instability on Russian Trade," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(7), pages 1276-1297, July.
    3. Zhang, Ying & Liu, Baoliu & Xue, Jinjun & Chen, Yiming & Zhao, Fang, 2025. "Would geopolitical risks be the new driver of the energy transition? An empirical study on renewable energy technology innovation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Rangan Gupta & Giray Gozgor & Huseyin Kaya & Ender Demir, 2019. "Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: evidence from the gravity model," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 515-530, December.
    5. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Berezin, Andrey & Sergi, Bruno S., 2024. "Factor proportions model for Russian mineral supply-driven global energy transition: Does externality matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 60(3), pages 267-290, August.
    7. Islam, Md. Monirul, 2025. "US-China bi-lateral mineral trade and energy transition in the landscape of global value chain pressures, geo-economic fragmentation and US-China geopolitical risks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 399(C).
    8. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Shang, Delei & Geissler, Bernhard & Mew, Michael & Satalkina, Liliya & Zenk, Lukas & Tulsidas, Harikrishnan & Barker, Lee & El-Yahyaoui, Adil & Hussein, Ahmed & Taha, Mohamed & Zheng, Yanhua & Wang, M, 2021. "Unconventional uranium in China's phosphate rock: Review and outlook," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Islam, Md. Saiful & Islam, Md. Monirul & Rehman, Anis Ur & Alam, Md. Fakhre & Tarique, Md., 2024. "Mineral production amidst the economy of uncertainty: Response of metallic and non-metallic minerals to geopolitical turmoil in Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and mineral-driven renewable energy generation in China: A decomposed analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Apergis, Nicholas & Fahmy, Hany, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Kotsompolis, Giorgos & Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Xidonas, Panos & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2025. "European financial markets, energy returns and geopolitical risk: A frequency domain spectral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Income Inequality: Evidence from the US Economy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 575-597, September.
    16. Bampinas, Georgios & Karfakis, Ioannis & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2026. "Stocks, currencies, and geopolitical shocks: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Huang, Zhuo & Ye, Chengfang & Lai, Fujun & Li, Yunzhong & Li, Xiaofan, 2024. "Dancing between threats and conflicts: How Chinese energy companies invest amidst global geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Bein, Murad A., 2026. "Dynamic interrelations and the potential of global industrial sectors to function as a refuge for the global transition towards a low-carbon economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Tamilselvan, M. & Halder, Abhishek & Kannadhasan, M., 2024. "Exploring the ingredients, mixtures, and inclinations of geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 187-206.
    20. Ha, Le Thanh, 2025. "From wars to dynamic waves: Scrutinizing connectedness between geopolitical risk index, green and non-green crypto volatility by quantile spillovers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 679(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B17 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:293:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224002524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.