Can reshoring policies hinder China's photovoltaic module exports? A dynamic perspective

Energy transition is driving the expansion of the global photovoltaic market, leading to increased demand for photovoltaic modules. The global photovoltaic module industry is heavily concentrated in China, with a significant portion of China's module production being exported to other countries. However, to enhance the resilience of local supply chains, the reshoring policies implemented by other countries introduce considerable uncertainty to China's photovoltaic module exports. This paper employs a two-pronged approach, utilizing a generalized Bass diffusion model to analyze the diffusion of global new photovoltaic installations facing energy transition requirements in different regions, and then a system dynamics model to assess the effect of foreign reshoring policies on China photovoltaic module exports. The results indicate that the diffusion of China new photovoltaic installation is first expected to enter a stable stage by 2039, followed by the EU in 2041, the USA in 2045, and finally the remaining countries in 2048. Moreover, China's photovoltaic module exports are expected to experience cyclical fluctuations, with two export peaks and one trough before 2060. Additionally, the reshoring policies in the USA and the EU have limited effects, while these policies in remaining countries significantly stimulate the expansion of production capacity.