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Renewable energy trade destruction and deflection: Effects of antidumping and countervailing measures on Chinese solar photovoltaic exports

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  • Lin, Boqiang
  • Liu, Yida

Abstract

In the context of the worldwide shift toward sustainable energy and escalating trade barriers, the domestic solar energy sector encounters ongoing challenges from antidumping and countervailing measures. This research explores the adverse impact of antidumping and countervailing policies (ADCV) on Chinese Solar Photovoltaic Exports (CSPE), as well as how CSPE shift to third-party markets in response to these trade protection measures, utilizing a panel dataset from 2007 to 2020, with analysis conducted using a staggered DID model. The results show that (1) ADCV have trade-destruction effects and substantially reduce CSPE. (2) The trade deflection effects indicates that when CSPE are restricted by ADCV, they are redirected to third-party nations with strong PV demand, infrastructure, and energy transitions. Additionally, some production capacity shifts to domestic sales, mitigating the negative impact of trade disruptions. (3) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that ADCV affect China's PV exports differently based on varying policy enforcement, energy investment levels, and energy dependence across countries. The findings of this paper provide valuable insights for China to deal with renewable energy trade barriers and optimize the overseas market layout of the PV industry.

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  • Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Yida, 2025. "Renewable energy trade destruction and deflection: Effects of antidumping and countervailing measures on Chinese solar photovoltaic exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:204:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525001946
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114687
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