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The economic value of equity implied volatility forecasting with machine learning

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  • Borochin, Paul
  • Zhao, Yanhui

Abstract

We evaluate the importance of nonlinear and interactive effects in implied volatility innovation forecasting by comparing the performance of machine learning models that can search for interactive effects relative to classical ones that cannot, measuring the economic significance of these predictions in cross-sectional and time series pricing tests of delta-hedged option returns. Machine learning models offer superior out of sample performance. Since the predictive variables are the same across all models, these performance differences likely capture the value of nonlinear and interactive effects in implied volatility forecasts. Our results are robust to look-ahead bias and model overfitting.

Suggested Citation

  • Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2025. "The economic value of equity implied volatility forecasting with machine learning," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:82:y:2025:i:c:s0927539825000404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101618
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility forecasting; Options; Return predictability; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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