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Uncertainty shocks and labor market dynamics in Japan

Author

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  • Hiroaki Miyamoto

    () (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of uncertainty shocks on Japan’s labor market. Using a measure of uncertainty from the stock market data and a structural VAR model, I find that an increase in uncertainty leads to a rise in unemployment and declines in output, vacancies, and inflation. I then develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market frictions and examine the transmission mechanism of uncertainty shocks. In the model, uncertainty shocks are defined as unexpected increases in the volatility of technology shock. My model can replicate the observed pattern of labor market responses to uncertainty shocks. I also discuss how the job separation channel influences the macroeconomic effect of uncertainty shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks and labor market dynamics in Japan," Working Papers SDES-2016-8, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Jun 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2016-8
    as

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    File URL: http://www.souken.kochi-tech.ac.jp/seido/wp/SDES-2016-8.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2014. "An estimated search and matching model of the Japanese labor market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 86-104.
    4. Kudoh, Noritaka & Sasaki, Masaru, 2011. "Employment and hours of work," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 176-192, February.
    5. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    6. Choi, Sangyup & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 344-358.
    7. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    8. Mecikovsky, Ariel Matias & Meier, Matthias, 2014. "Do plants freeze upon uncertainty shocks?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100541, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    10. Noritaka Kudoh & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Masaru Sasaki, 2019. "Employment and Hours over the Business Cycle in a Model with Search Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 436-461, January.
    11. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    12. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    13. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    14. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samil Oh & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2017. "Firm entry, Search and Matching in a Small Open Economy Faced with Uncertainty Shocks: The case of Korea," THEMA Working Papers 2017-27, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Unemployment; Search and matching; Japanese economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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