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Arturo Estrella

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. All bark but no bite? What does the yield curve tell us about growth?
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2019-06-04 08:00:14
  2. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are \"deep\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What does "structural" mean?
      by Noah Smith in Noahpinion on 2015-01-15 01:23:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  4. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectation Models (AER 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lojak, Benjamin & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "Low interest rates, bank’s search-for-yield behavior and financial portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Georg Leitner & Teresa Hübel & Anna Wolfmayr & Manuel Zerobin, 2021. "How risky is Monetary Policy? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Risk in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp312, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel," Working Papers hal-03138724, HAL.
    5. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2019. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the risk-taking channel of monetary policy?," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    9. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Giambona, Erasmo & Matta, Rafael & Peydró, José-Luis & Wang, Ye, 2020. "Quantitative Easing, Investment, and Safe Assets: The Corporate-Bond Lending Channel," EconStor Preprints 217049, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.

  2. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle," Staff Reports 421, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Yunus Aksoy & Henriqu S Basso, 2012. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1211, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    3. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    6. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    7. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    8. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    9. Jochen O. Mierau & Mark Mink, 2018. "A Descriptive Model of Banking and Aggregate Demand," De Economist, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 207-237, June.
    10. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    11. Landais, Bernard, 2011. "Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise [Management and Efficiency of the Economic Policies : The Crisis' Lessons"]," MPRA Paper 31223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Weber, Patrick, 2012. "Timing asset market peaks: the role of the liquidity risk cycle of the banking system," MPRA Paper 36061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    14. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    15. Vadim LOPOTENCO, 2017. "What Is The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Systemic Risk Of Republic Of Moldova'S Banking Sector?," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 2(1), pages 157-163.
    16. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol, 2022. "Does the choice of monetary policy tool matter for systemic risk? The curious case of negative interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    18. Malibongwe Cyprian Nyati & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi & Christian Kakese Tipoy, 2023. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interactions and Coordination in South Africa: Evidence from Business and Financial Cycle Synchronisation," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    19. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    20. Landais, Bernard, 2010. "The monetary origins of the financial and economic crisis," MPRA Paper 23769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aydemir, Resul & Ovenc, Gokhan, 2016. "Interest rates, the yield curve and bank profitability in an emerging market economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 670-682.
    22. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    23. Landais, Bernard, 2012. "Reformulation du modèle macroéconomique de la nouvelle synthèse : crédits, politique monétaire et écarts de taux [A reformulation of the new synthesis macroeconomic model : credits, monetary policy," MPRA Paper 38665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Juan Contreras, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 686, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.

  3. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella, 2009. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Staff Reports 397, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon H. Kwan & Louis Liu, 2022. "Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(03), pages 1-6, February.
    2. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 287-334.
    4. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    5. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Maximilian Renz & Olaf Stotz, 2021. "A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 73-94, January.
    7. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Robert Faff, 2021. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Papers 2101.06957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    8. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    9. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities," Staff Reports 428, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2020. "A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s," Working Papers 2020-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Jan 2022.
    12. Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
    13. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    14. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert, 2019. "Monetary policy expectations and risk-taking among U.S. banks," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2013. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 2013/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    17. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    18. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    19. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
    20. Gunturu Phani Sai Vamsi Krishna & Pankaj Kumar Baag, 2021. "Financial Intermediaries: Its different role," Working papers 464, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    21. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Mr. Julio Escolano & Ms. Christina Kolerus & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2014. "Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2014/215, International Monetary Fund.

  4. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?," Staff Reports 289, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Pu Chen & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 853-878, September.
    2. Ladislava Issever Grochová & Petr Rozmahel, 2015. "On the Ideality of Filtering Techniques in the Business Cycle Analysis Under Conditions of European Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 915-926.
    3. Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 152014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Hangyong Lee and Jin Lee, 2019. "Inflation Co-Movement in the ASEAN Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 135-152, December.

  5. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2007. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp194, IIIS.
    2. Sandip Sinharay, 2017. "Some Remarks on Applications of Tests for Detecting A Change Point to Psychometric Problems," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1149-1161, December.
    3. Jean-Marc Azaïs & Alan Genz, 2013. "Computation of the Distribution of the Maximum of Stationary Gaussian Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 969-985, December.

  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco manzo, 2005. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Macroeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    3. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
    4. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2010. "Real-time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.
    6. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Under Balanced Budget And Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(4), pages 455-472, September.
    7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Temitope Leshoro & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil, 2016. "Inflation Or Output Targeting? Monetary Policy Appropriateness In South Africa," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(276), pages 77-104.
    9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    10. Morelli, Pierluigi & Seghezza, Elena, 2021. "Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-14.
    11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Bohdan Kłos, 2003. "Rules of Percentage Rate in Conditions of Uncertainty," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 9.
    13. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
    14. Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 8, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    16. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2005. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 46, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    20. Georges Prat, 2014. "Rueff et l’analyse du chômage : Quels héritages?," Working Papers hal-04141368, HAL.
    21. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    24. Georges Prat, 2013. "Rueff et l'analyse du chômage: Quels heritages?," Working Papers 2013-26, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    25. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, 2010. "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600096, EcoMod.
    26. Adam Cagliarini & Alexandra Heath, 2000. "Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    27. Gino Cateau, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 05-6, Bank of Canada.
    28. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada.
    29. Alessandro Flamini, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," DEM Working Papers Series 027, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    30. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Giuli Francesco, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," wp.comunite 0061, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    31. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
    32. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    33. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Indranarain Ramlall, 2015. "Mauritius Financial System Stress Index: Estimating the Costs of the Subprime Crisis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 235-271, September.
    35. Ajax R. B. Moreira & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2015. "Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0100, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    36. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    37. Mr. Victor Gaiduch & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2000/158, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
    39. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    40. Cateau, Gino, 2007. "Monetary policy under model and data-parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2083-2101, October.
    41. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2005. "The Fed after Greenspan," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 317-332, Summer.
    42. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    43. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Paolo Surico, 2003. "Why are Federal Funds Rates so Smooth?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 39, Royal Economic Society.
    44. Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Alessandro Turrini, 2014. "Is unemployment structural or cyclical? Main features of job matching in the EU after the crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 527, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    45. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    46. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2013. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Working Papers 201310, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
    48. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    49. Ricardo Gonçalves Silva & Marinho Gomes Andrade & Milton Barossi-Filho, 2004. "Understanding Brazilian Unemployment Structure: A Mixed Autoregressive Approach," Econometrics 0408003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Aug 2004.
    50. Jim Engle-Warnick & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2006. "An Experimental Test of Taylor-Type Rules with Inexperienced Central Bankers," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-05, CIRANO.
    51. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society.
    52. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "The conduct of monetary policy in the Eurozone before and after the financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 83-92.
    53. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    54. Thomas Mayer, "undated". "Some Practical Aspects of Pluralism in Economics Truth is so important, however, that it behooves us not to jump to conclusions about it (Samuels, 1997)," Department of Economics 99-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    55. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01304310, HAL.
    56. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    58. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
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    114. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
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    122. Zongwu Cai & Gunawan, 2023. "A Combination Forecast for Nonparametric Models with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
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    134. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
    135. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    136. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    137. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.
    138. Azhar Iqbal & Sam Bullard & John Silvia, 2019. "Are yield-curve/monetary cycles’ approaches enough to predict recessions?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 61-68, January.
    139. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    140. Masashi Hasegawa & Yuichi Fukuta, 2011. "An empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1865-1881.
    141. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    142. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    143. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    144. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    145. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    146. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    147. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
    148. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    149. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    150. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Asymmetry In The Link Between The Yield Spread And Industrial Production. Threshold Effects And Forecasting," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-41, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    151. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    152. Gauger, Jean & Schunk, Don, 2002. "Predicting Regional Recessions Via the Yield Spread," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 32(2), pages 151-170, Summer/Fa.
    153. Smith Aaron, 2012. "Markov Breaks in Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, May.
    154. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    155. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    156. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    157. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    158. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
    159. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
    160. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    161. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
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    165. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    166. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    167. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    168. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2016. "Do stock market trading activities forecast recessions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 370-386.
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    170. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
    171. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 466/467, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    172. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  8. Jeff Fuhrer & Arturo Estrella, 1999. "Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 621, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    2. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    3. Grégory Levieuge & Alexis Penot, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB: Why Such an Apparent Difference in Reactivity ?," Post-Print halshs-00364537, HAL.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Jesper Linde, 2002. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 155-182.
    7. Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 203-213.
    8. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    9. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S. & Breitung, Jörg, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    11. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2002. "Monetary policy and stagflation in the UK," Bank of England working papers 155, Bank of England.
    13. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    15. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Efrem CASTELNUOVO, 2010. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," EcoMod2004 330600035, EcoMod.
    17. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    19. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    20. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    21. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    22. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 35-58.
    23. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 03/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    25. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2000. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Working papers 76, Banque de France.
    26. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Mixing Feedback Rules and the Distribution of Inflation and Output," CEIS Research Paper 37, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    28. Vines, David & Scheibe, Jörg, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Marie Diron & Benoit Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q II), pages 33-45.
    30. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    31. Corrado, L. & Holly, S., 2000. "Piecewise Linear Feedback Rules in a Non Linear Model of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from the US and the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0019, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    32. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    33. Diron, Marie & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank's inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 564, European Central Bank.
    34. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    35. Emmanuel Dubois & Jerome Hericourt & Valerie Mignon, 2009. "What if the euro had never been launched? A counterfactual analysis of the macroeconomic impact of euro membership," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2241-2255.
    36. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    38. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    39. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
    40. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    41. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

  9. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    3. António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    5. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
    6. Shang-Wu Yu & Shang-Wu Yu, 1999. "Estimation of the probit model with autocorrelated errors via the MCECM algorithm," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 409-412.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Cipollini, Andrea & Fiordelisi, Franco, 2012. "Economic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3101-3109.
    9. Grossman, Richard S., 2007. "Fear and greed: The evolution of double liability in American banking, 1865-1930," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, January.
    10. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    11. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2017. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
    12. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2002. "Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-253, October.
    16. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Does transparency in central bank intervention policy bring noise to the FX market?: The case of the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-111, February.
    17. Mr. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 2004/039, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    19. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    21. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    22. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.

  10. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
    2. Viñals, José, 2001. "Monetary Policy Issues in a Low Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    6. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  11. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach," Research Paper 9739, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  12. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Franklin G. Mixon & Chandini Sankaran, 2019. "Men in Grey Suits: Shark Activity and Congestion of the Surfing Commons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
    3. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Ikeno, Hidehiro, 2014. "Long-run analysis on convergence of Japanese local price levels: A pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 390-397.
    5. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
    6. Thomas M. Fullerton & Elías D. Saenz-Rojo & Adam G. Walke, 2017. "Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2910-2921, June.
    7. Dimitrios Christelis & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2006. "Cognitive Abilities and Portfolio Choice," CSEF Working Papers 157, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2007. "Assessing the Response of Farm Households to Dairy Policy Reform in Israel," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9948, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 387, September.
    11. Honghu Liu & Yan Zheng & Jie Shen, 2008. "Goodness-of-fit measures of R2 for repeated measures mixed effect models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1081-1092.
    12. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    13. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    14. Mar Llorente-Marrón & Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 771-798, April.
    15. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 80-106.
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    17. Giselmar A. J. Hemmert & Laura M. Schons & Jan Wieseke & Heiko Schimmelpfennig, 2018. "Log-likelihood-based Pseudo-R2 in Logistic Regression," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 47(3), pages 507-531, August.
    18. Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
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    21. Min-Ki Hyun & Hong-Su Ahn & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2024. "Which Is Preferred between Electric or Hydrogen Cars for Carbon Neutrality in the Commercial Vehicle Transportation Sector of South Korea? Implications from a Public Opinion Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-16, February.
    22. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    360. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
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    371. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    372. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    373. Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.
    374. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
    375. Lai, Van Son & Ye, Xiaoxia & Zhao, Lu, 2019. "Are market views on banking industry useful for forecasting economic growth?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    376. Guihai Zhao, 2018. "Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 18-24, Bank of Canada.
    377. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    378. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    379. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Testing Transmission Mechanisms on Economic Growth in Malaysia," Monash Economics Working Papers 26-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    380. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.
    381. Dylan Herman & Cody Googin & Xiaoyuan Liu & Alexey Galda & Ilya Safro & Yue Sun & Marco Pistoia & Yuri Alexeev, 2022. "A Survey of Quantum Computing for Finance," Papers 2201.02773, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    382. Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
    383. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    384. Lange, Ronald H., 2015. "International long-term yields and monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 292-310.
    385. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset, 2013. "Return sign forecasts based on conditional risk: Evidence from the UK stock market index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2342-2353.
    386. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1998. "Indicator Properties of the Paper—Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experience," Scholarly Articles 4554251, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    387. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
    388. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    389. Jaehoon Hahn & Ho-Seong Moon, 2016. "Credit Cycle and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence from Korea," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 22(4), pages 76-108, December.
    390. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores, 2021. "Macroeconomic and financial implications of multi‐dimensional interdependencies between OECD countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 741-776, January.
    391. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578, April.
    392. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    393. Smimou, K., 2014. "Consumer attitudes, stock market liquidity, and the macro economy: A Canadian perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 186-209.
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    395. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Young Ho Eom & Jun Uno, 2000. "Credit Risk and the Pricing of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-069, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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    399. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    402. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  15. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "Taylor, Black and Scholes: series approximations and risk management pitfalls," Research Paper 9501, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.
    2. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1996. "Methods to determine capital requirements for options," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(198), pages 351-373.
    3. Matthew Pritsker, 1996. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Methodologies: Accuracy versus Computational Time," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-48, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Michel Aglietta, 1996. "Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 1996-01, CEPII research center.
    5. Giuseppe Di Graziano & Lorenzo Torricelli, 2012. "Target Volatility Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-17.
    6. Jean-Philippe Aguilar, 2018. "On expansions for the Black-Scholes prices and hedge parameters," Papers 1809.06736, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    7. Michele Mininni & Giuseppe Orlando & Giovanni Taglialatela, 2018. "Challenges in approximating the Black and Scholes call formula with hyperbolic tangents," Papers 1810.04623, arXiv.org.

  16. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Francisco Alonso-Sánchez & Juan Ayuso-Huertas & Jorge Martínez-Pagés, 2000. "El contenido informativo de los tipos de interés sobre la tasa de inflación española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 455-471, May.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
    5. Shinobu Nakagawa & Naoto Osawa, 2000. "Financial Market and Macroeconomic Volatility - Relationships and Some Puzzles -," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    6. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald & Ian Marsh, 2011. "Remilitarization and the End of the Gold Bloc in 1936," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 305-321, September.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    9. Van Landschoot, Astrid, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank.
    10. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 64-75.
    12. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1997. "Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics français," Working papers 43, Banque de France.
    13. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    14. Rossi, Giovanni, 2004. "Euro Weakness in the Late Nineties," MPRA Paper 90272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jaroslav Brada & Karel Brůna, 2004. "Analýza citlivosti referenčních úrokových sazeb PRIBOR na změny repo sazby České národní banky [An analysis of PRIBOR interest rates sensitivity to changes in Czech national bank repo rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 601-621.
    16. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    17. N. Funke, 1997. "Yield spreads as predictors of recessions in a core European economic area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 695-697.
    18. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza & Eli M. Remolona, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Mr. Rajan Goyal & Mr. K. Kanagasabapathy, 2002. "Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy," IMF Working Papers 2002/091, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Angélica Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    24. Boukhatem, Jamel & Sekouhi, Hayfa, 2017. "What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-303.
    25. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    26. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
    27. Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion," Economics Program Working Papers 01-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    28. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Won-Gi Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2012. "Leading Behavior of Interest Rate Term Spreads and Credit Risk Spreads in Korea," Working Papers 1203, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    30. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March.
    31. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    32. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative Spezifikationen der deutschen Zinsstrukturkurve und ihr Informationsgehalt hinsichtlich der Inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    34. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    35. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1999. "The Information Content of the French and German Government Bond Tield Curves: Why Such Differences?," Working papers 61, Banque de France.
    36. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank.
    37. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
    38. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "Determinants of Euro Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Working Paper Research 57, National Bank of Belgium.
    39. David McMillan, 2002. "Interest rate spread and real activity: evidence for the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 191-194.
    40. Hedva Ber & Adi Brender & Sigal Ribon, 2004. "Are Fiscal and Monetary Policies reflected in Real Yields? Evidence from a period of Disinflation and Declining Deficit Targets," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 2(2), pages 15-44.
    41. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Jae Young Jang & Min Jae Park, 2019. "A Study on Global Investors’ Criteria for Investment in the Local Currency Bond Markets Using AHP Methods: The Case of the Republic of Korea," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, October.
    43. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    44. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates - A parametric approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    45. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, 2003. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    46. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    47. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    48. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  17. Arturo Estrella & Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Soo Shin & Stefan Walter, 1994. "Options positions: risk management and capital requirements," Research Paper 9415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Powell, Andrew & Balzarotti, Verónica, 1997. "Capital Requirements for Latin American Banks in Relation to their Market Risks: The Relevance of the Basle 1996 Amendment to Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6065, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Andrew Powell & Veronica Balzarotti, 1997. "Requisitos de capital de los bancos latinoamericanos en relación con sus niveles de riesgo de mercado: importancia de la Enmienda de Basilea de 1996 para América Latina," Research Department Publications 4073, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691.

  18. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2012. "Early warning indicator model of financial developments using an ordered logit," Wismar Discussion Papers 06/2012, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    3. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A Macro-Finance approach," Working Paper Research 254, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    6. Ken Nyholm, 2007. "A New Approach to Predicting Recessions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(1), pages 27-42, February.
    7. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    8. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the Term Spread on Inequality in the United Kingdom: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 201981, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Christos Agiakloglou & Michalis Gkouvakis & Aggelos Kanas, 2016. "Causality in EU macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 264-277, March.
    11. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
    12. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper series 65_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    16. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
    18. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    19. Krishnaswami, Sudha & Yaman, Devrim, 2007. "Contracting costs and the window of opportunity for straight debt issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 869-888, March.
    20. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    22. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
    23. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium-based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
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    743. Paul Francois Muzindutsi & Sinethemba Mposelwa, 2016. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Brics Countries: A Multivariate Co-integration Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(4), pages 289-304, October.
    744. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
    745. Seungho Baek & Jeong Wan Lee & Kyong Joo Oh & Myoungji Lee, 2020. "Yield curve risks in currency carry forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 651-670, April.
    746. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
    747. Jaehoon Hahn & Ho-Seong Moon, 2016. "Credit Cycle and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence from Korea," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 22(4), pages 76-108, December.
    748. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    749. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2012. "The US term structure and central bank policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 41-45, January.
    750. Hoon Cho & Brian Ciochetti & James Shilling, 2013. "Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-23, January.
    751. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    752. Seung C. Ahn & Stephan Dieckmann & M. Fabricio Perez, 2018. "Is there a missing factor? A canonical correlation approach to factor models," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 321-347, October.
    753. Samuel Carrasco & Luis Ceballos & Jessica Mena, 2016. "Estimación de la estructura de tasas de interés en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 58-75, April.
    754. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
    755. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    756. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    757. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wanzenried, Gabrielle, 2007. "Firm Characteristics, Economic Conditions and Capital Structure Adjustment," Working papers 2007/16, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    758. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
    759. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    760. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2022. "An Evaluation Framework for Targeted Indicators Aggregates vs. Disaggregates," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-17, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    761. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Modelling asymmetric persistence over the business cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9852, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    762. Anna Florio, 2004. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 409-426, July.
    763. Lekkos, Ilias, 2007. "Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 783-817, December.
    764. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    765. Ramaprasad Bhar & Nedim Handzic, 2011. "A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 105-127, March.
    766. Krishnaswami, Sudha & Yaman, Devrim, 2008. "The role of convertible bonds in alleviating contracting costs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 792-816, November.
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    768. Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "What the current yield curve says, and what the future prices of energy do," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    769. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.
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  19. Marcelle V. Arak & Arturo Estrella & Laurie Goodman & Andrew Silver, 1988. "Interest rate swaps: an alternative explanation," Research Paper 8811, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Samant, Ajay & Burnie, David & D'Mello, James, 1995. "Signaling effects of junk bond issuance: Has the interest rate swap age made a difference?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 155-167.
    2. Anatoli Kuprianov, 1994. "The role of interest rate swaps in corporate finance," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 49-68.
    3. Andrew H. Chen & Mohammed M. Chaudhury, 1996. "The Market Value and Dynamic Interest Rate Risk of Swaps," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-44, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Harper, Joel T. & Wingender, John R., 2000. "An empirical test of agency cost reduction using interest rate swaps," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 1419-1431, September.
    5. Adam Kobor & Lishan Shi & Ivan Zelenko, 2005. "What Determines U.S. Swap Spreads?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7272, December.
    6. Goswami, Gautam & Shrikhande, Milind M., 1998. "Interest rate swaps and economic exposure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 51-70.
    7. Li, Haitao & Mao, Connie X., 2003. "Corporate use of interest rate swaps: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1511-1538, August.
    8. Saunders, Kent T., 1999. "The interest rate swap: Theory and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-78, March.
    9. Gautam Goswami & Milind M. Shrikhande, 1997. "Interest rate swaps and economic exposure," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
    11. Malhotra, D. K., 1998. "The impact of interest rate reset period on the bid-offer rates in an interest rate swap contract -- an empirical investigation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 79-88, January.
    12. George W. Fenn & Mitchell A. Post & Steven A. Sharpe, 1996. "Debt maturity and the use of interest rate derivatives by non-financial firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jian Yang & David J. Leatham & Spencer A. Case, 2000. "The wealth effect of swap usage in the food processing industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 367-379.

  20. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1983. "Average Marginal Tax Rates U.S. Household Interest and Dividend Income 1954-80," NBER Working Papers 1201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. John H. Makin, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan Reynolds, 1985. "Some International Comparisons of Supply-Side Tax Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 543-569, Fall.
    3. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
    4. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Explained by GDP Growth and Consistent with Portfolio Insurance," Finance 0311004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2004. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0403004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2004.

Articles

  1. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2019. "Shocking aspects of monetary policy on income inequality in the euro area," Sciences Po publications 2019-15, Sciences Po.
    2. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2020. "Income inequality and monetary policy in the Euro Area," Sciences Po publications 20/2020, Sciences Po.
    4. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    6. Tarron Khemraj & Sherry Yu, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics and Quantitative Easing," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 613-638, October.
    7. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Mansur, Alfan, 2019. "Sharia Banking Dynamics and the Macroeconomic Responses: Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 97883, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Oct 2019.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Ilhami Gunduz, 2021. "Stock market transmission channel of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6421-6443, October.
    11. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "Inflation expectations of households in India: Role of oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and spillover of global financial uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 230-251, April.
    13. Hénock Muanza Katuala, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Monetary Stability And Economic Growth In The Democratic Republic Of Congo [Politique Monetaire, Stabilite Monetaire Et Croissance Economique En Republique Democratique Du Congo]," Working Papers hal-02616124, HAL.

  3. Sebastian Schich & Arturo Estrella, 2015. "Valuing guaranteed bank debt: Role of strength and size of the bank and the guarantor," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(5), pages 19-32, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Nicole Allenspach & Oleg Reichmann & Javier Rodriguez-Martin, 2021. "Are banks still 'too big to fail'? - A market perspective," Working Papers 2021-18, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Mario Bellia & Sara Maccaferri & Sebastian Schich, 2022. "Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 368-389, December.

  4. Arturo Estrella & Sebastian Schich, 2012. "Sovereign and Banking Sector Debt: Interconnections through Guarantees," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(2), pages 21-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Vincenzo D’Apice & Giovanni Ferri & Punziana Lacitignola, 2016. "Rating Performance and Bank Business Models: Is There a Change with the 2007–2009 Crisis?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(3), pages 385-420, November.
    2. Oana Toader, 2014. "Quantifying and Explaining Implicit Public Guarantees for European Banks," Working Papers halshs-01015376, HAL.
    3. Antzoulatos, Angelos A. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Institutions, moral hazard and expected government support of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 161-171.

  5. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).

    Cited by:

    1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    2. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
    6. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Baeho, 2014. "Systematic cyclicality of systemic bubbles: Evidence from the U.S. commercial banking system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 281-297.
    7. Ryan S. Mattson, 2019. "A Divisia User Cost Interpretation of the Yield Spread Recession Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, January.
    8. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies”," IREA Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    10. Colin Ellis, 2014. "Break-even maturity as a guide to financial distress," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(4), December.
    11. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    12. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    14. Michael Puglia & Adam Tucker, 2020. "Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
    16. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    17. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    18. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    20. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    21. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    22. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Robert L. Hetzel, 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    24. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
    25. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    26. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
    27. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    29. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    30. Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton, 2014. "A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(3), pages 468-473, September.
    31. Jens J. Krüger, 2014. "A multivariate evaluation of German output growth and inflation forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1410-1418.
    32. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
    33. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    34. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green, 2013. "Regulatory-Optimal Funding," Papers 1310.3386, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.
    36. Szymon Grabowski, 2007. "Real economic activity and state of financial markets," Working Papers 7, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    37. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    38. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
    39. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Perspectives From the Past for the Federal Reserve¡¯s Monetary Policy and Communication," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 31-51, January.
    40. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
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    106. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Ms. Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 2007/074, International Monetary Fund.
    107. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    108. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    109. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    110. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    111. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    112. Fida Hussain & Asif Mahmood, 2017. "Predicting Output Growth and Inflation in Pakistan: The Role of Yield Spread," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 53-76.
    113. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
    114. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    115. Masashi Hasegawa & Yuichi Fukuta, 2011. "An empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1865-1881.
    116. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    117. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    118. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    119. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    120. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
    121. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    122. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    123. ARANHA, Marcel Z. & MOURA, Marcelo L., 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_157, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    124. Akhter, Selim & Daly, Kevin, 2017. "Contagion risk for Australian banks from global systemically important banks: Evidence from extreme events," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-205.
    125. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
    126. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    127. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    128. Ante Toni Vrdoljak, 2016. "Corporate Bond Yield Curve Estimation for the Croatian Financial Market Using the Nelson-Siegel Model," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 269-284.
    129. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
    130. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    131. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    132. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
    133. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
    134. Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
    135. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    136. Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "What the current yield curve says, and what the future prices of energy do," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    137. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.

  8. Arturo Estrella, 2004. "Bank Capital and Risk: Is Voluntary Disclosure Enough?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 145-160, October.

    Cited by:

    1. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    2. D'Avino, Carmela & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2010. "Opacity of Banks and Runs with Solvency," MPRA Paper 24166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christophe Godlewski & Dorota Skala & Laurent Weill, 2019. "Is Lending by Polish Cooperative Banks Procyclical?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(4), pages 342-365, August.
    4. Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2011. "Economic Activity And Financialinstitutional Risk: An Empirical Analysis For The Banking Industry," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Niinimaki, J.-P., 2012. "Hidden loan losses, moral hazard and financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14.
    6. VanHoose, David, 2007. "Theories of bank behavior under capital regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3680-3697, December.
    7. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2012. "Financial regulation and transparency of information: evidence from banking industry," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 380-397, August.
    8. Romila Qamar & Shahid Mansoor Hashmi & Jaleel Ahmed & Ahmed N.K. AlFarra, 2016. "Are Capital Buffers Countercyclical ? An Evidence From Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 123-146, September.
    9. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March.
    10. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Zhang, Xiaoxiang & Wang, Chaoke, 2016. "Invisible hand discipline from informed trading: Does market discipline from trading affect bank capital structure?," MPRA Paper 76215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Délio José Cordeiro Galvão & Renato Falci Villela Loures, 2011. "Financial Regulation and Transparency of Information: first steps on new land," Working Papers Series 248, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Sophia I-Ling Wang, 2018. "Bank External Financing and Early Adoption of SFAS 133," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-40, September.
    13. Helder Mendonça & Renato Villela Loures, 2009. "Market discipline in the Brazilian banking industry: an analysis for the subordinated debt holders," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 286-307, December.
    14. J. Mukuddem-Petersen & M. A. Petersen, 2008. "Optimizing Asset and Capital Adequacy Management in Banking," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 205-230, April.

  9. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks' choice of loan rating system," Bank of England working papers 181, Bank of England.
    2. Stolz, Stéphanie & Wedow, Michael, 2005. "Banks' regulatory capital buffer and the business cycle: evidence for German savings and cooperative banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Selim Mankai & Aymen Belgacem, 2013. "Interactions Between Risk-Taking, Capital, and Reinsurance for Property-Liability Insurance Firms," Working Papers hal-04141190, HAL.
    4. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Pablo D'Erasmo & Dean Corbae, 2018. "Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics," 2018 Meeting Papers 1221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model," IMF Working Papers 2014/057, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Chami, Ralph & Cosimano, Thomas F., 2010. "Monetary policy with a touch of Basel," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 161-175, May.
    8. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    9. Benjamin Hemingway, 2020. "Banking regulation and collateral screening in a model of information asymmetry," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 73, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Internal Ratings Systems, Implied Credit Risk and the Consistency of Banks’ Risk Classification Policies," Working Paper Series 155, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    11. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 27-38, August.
    12. Di Nicolo, G. & Gamba, A. & Lucchetta, M., 2011. "Capital Regulation, Liquidity Requirements and Taxation in a Dynamic Model of Banking," Discussion Paper 2011-090, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Silu Muduli & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Bank capital and monetary policy transmission in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 32-56, January.
    14. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2011. "Risky Bank Lending and Optimal Capital Adequacy Regulation," IMF Working Papers 2011/130, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Valerio Vacca, 2011. "An unexpected crisis? Looking at pricing effectiveness of different banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 814, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
    17. William Francis & Matthew Osborne, 2009. "On the Behaviour and Determinants of Risk-Based Capital Ratios: Revisiting the Evidence from UK Banking Institutions," Occasional Papers 31, Financial Services Authority.
    18. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    19. Albert, Jose Ramon G. & Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Song, Lei Lei, 2012. "A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness," Discussion Papers DP 2012-22, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    20. Aymanns, Christoph & Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Tan, Vincent W.C., 2015. "Taming the Basel leverage cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65089, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2012. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," Working Papers wp2012_1202, CEMFI.
    22. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01284978, HAL.
    23. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
    24. Ghosh, Saibal, 2008. "Capital requirements, bank behavior and monetary policy: A theoretical analysis with an empirical application to India," MPRA Paper 17306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    26. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    28. Andrés Felipe García-Suaza & Jose Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés Murcia pabón & Feenando tenjo Galarza, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Bank Capital Buffers in an Emerging Economy: Size Does Matter," Borradores de Economia 8305, Banco de la Republica.
    29. Chevallier, Claire Océane & El Joueidi, Sarah, 2019. "Capital regulation and banking bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 117-129.
    30. Martin Berka & Christian Zimmermann, 2011. "Basel Accord and financial intermediation: the impact of policy," Working Papers 2011-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    31. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March.
    32. Renee B. Adams & Hamid Mehran, 2003. "Is corporate governance different for bank holding companies?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Apr), pages 123-142.
    33. Olivier Bruno & Alexandra Girod, 2013. "Procyclicality and Bank Portfolio Risk Level under a Constant Leverage Ratio," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    34. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Piotr Pękała & Andrzej Torój, 2017. "To SVAR or to SVEC? On the transmission of capital buffer shocks to the real economy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(2), pages 119-148.
    35. Saibal Ghosh, 2015. "Macroprudential regulation and bank behaviour: theory and evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 138-159, July.
    36. Mohamed Trabelsi & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Dhuha Fadhel, 2015. "Bank's Capital Buffers and Business Cycle: Evidence from GCC Countries. 2004-2011," Working Papers 925, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2015.
    37. Lin, Karen Lai Kai, 2020. "The Cyclical Patterns of Capital Buffers: Evidence from Japanese Banks," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(1), pages 49-68, February.
    38. Johann Jacobs & Gary Vuuren, 2014. "A Case for Economic Capital as a Pillar 1 Regulatory Tool," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 290-314, June.
    39. Arturo Estrella, 2004. "Bank Capital and Risk: Is Voluntary Disclosure Enough?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 145-160, October.
    40. Marques Pereira, João André C. & Saito, Richard, 2015. "How banks respond to Central Bank supervision: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 22-30.
    41. Krainer, Robert E., 2013. "Towards a program for financial stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 207-218.
    42. Niinimaki, J.-P., 2012. "Hidden loan losses, moral hazard and financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14.
    43. Junghwan Mok, 2013. "Bank Capital and Lending: An Analysis of Commercial Banks in the United States," Working Papers w201318, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    44. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    45. Ly, Kim Cuong & Shimizu, Katsutoshi, 2021. "Did Basel regulation cause a significant procyclicality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    46. Heid, Frank, 2007. "The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3885-3900, December.
    47. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
    48. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    49. Yilmaz, Ensar, 2009. "Capital accumulation and regulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 760-771, August.
    50. Katsutoshi Shimizu & Kim Cuong Ly, 2018. "Did Basel regulations cause a significant procyclicality?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swansea University, School of Management.
    51. Ghosh, Saibal, 2008. "Risk and capital adjustment over the business cycle: Evidence from Indian banks," MPRA Paper 22524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    53. Bernd Hofmann, 2005. "Procyclicality: The Macroeconomic Impact of Risk-Based Capital Requirements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, August.
    54. Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2005. "Did the Basel Accord Cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 2005/038, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2007. "Economic and Regulatory Capital in Banking: What Is the Difference?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 87-117, September.
    56. Paraskevi Dimou & Colin Lawrence & Alistair Milne, 2005. "Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 135-161, October.
    57. Li, Boyao, 2021. "Bank equity, interest payments, and credit creation under Basel III regulations," MPRA Paper 111269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Konstantinos Loizos, 2020. "The interbank market, Keynes’s degree of confidence and the link between banks’ liquidity and solvency," Working Papers PKWP2017, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    59. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Simone Varotto, 2010. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: The Great Depression Scenario," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    61. Li, Boyao, 2021. "When government expenditure meets bank regulation: The impact of government expenditure on credit supply," MPRA Paper 111311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Kilponen, Juha & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The lending channel under optimal choice of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2007, Bank of Finland.
    63. Kogler, Michael, 2016. "Optimal Bank Capital Regulation, the Real Sector, and the State of the Economy," Economics Working Paper Series 1615, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    64. Juan Ayuso & Daniel Pérez & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Are capital buffers pro-cyclical? Evidence from Spanish panel data," Working Papers 0224, Banco de España.
    65. Diemo Dietrich & Uwe Vollmer, 2004. "Why do banks hold capital in excess of regulatory requirements? A functional approach," Finance 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Krainer, Robert, 2009. "Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    67. Benes, Jaromir & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    68. Selim Mankaï & Aymen Belgacem, 2016. "Interactions Between Risk Taking, Capital, and Reinsurance for Property–Liability Insurance Firms," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1007-1043, December.
    69. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
    70. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    71. Cohen-Cole, Ethan & Morse, Jonathan, 2010. "Monetary policy and capital regulation in the US and Europe," Working Paper Series 1222, European Central Bank.
    72. Lin, Karen Lai Kai & Konishi, Masaru, 2013. "Capital requirements, bank behavior and fair value accounting: Evidence from Japanese commercial banks," Working Paper Series G-1-6, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
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    89. Alejandro Ferrer Pérez & José Casals Carro & Sonia Sotoca López, 2014. "A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    90. Khurram Iftikhar & Syed Faizan Iftikhar, 2018. "The impact of business cycle on capital buffer during the period of Basel-II and Basel-III: Evidence from the Pakistani banks," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-20, December.
    91. Birgit Schmitz, 2007. "The impact of Basel I capital regulation on bank deposits and loans: Empirical evidence for Europe," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    92. Cuong, Ly Kim & Pham, Ha, 2021. "Direct and indirect impacts of European banks’ regulation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    93. Kogler, Michael, 2015. "Rewarding Prudence: Risk Taking, Pecuniary Externalities and Optimal Bank Regulation," Economics Working Paper Series 1512, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    94. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    95. Issouf Soumaré & Ernest Tafolong, 2017. "Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 597-612, April.
    96. Emanuel Barnea & Moshe Kim, 2014. "Dynamics of Banks' Capital Accumulation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 779-816, June.
    97. Kamil J. Mizgier & Joseph M. Pasia, 2016. "Multiobjective optimization of credit capital allocation in financial institutions," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(4), pages 801-817, December.
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  10. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    2. David Kiefer, 2016. "Policy effectiveness is limited by a flat Phillips curve, stabilization as practiced in Europe and the US," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2016_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Zhang, Chengsi & Clovis, Joel, 2010. "China inflation dynamics: Persistence and policy regimes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 373-388, May.
    4. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    5. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    7. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1382, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Batabyal, Sourav & Islam, Faridul & Khaznaji, Maher, 2018. "On the sources of the Great Moderation: Role of monetary policy and intermediate inputs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680647, HAL.
    12. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 79, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    14. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006. "Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules," Working Papers 0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    15. Kiefer, David, 2015. "Targets and lags in a two-equation model of US stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-24.
    16. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2016. "On the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique: the case of euro area money demand," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82, February.
    17. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Mª Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability:The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/52, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    18. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    19. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    21. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    22. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    23. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
    24. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    25. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    26. Dong Jin Lee & Jong Chil Son, 2011. "Nonlinearity and Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules with Stock Prices," Working papers 2011-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    27. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    28. Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55, May.
    29. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775.
    30. Steve Keen, 2013. "Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 228-254, June.
    31. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    32. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 622-629, January.
    33. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    34. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    35. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    36. J. Subrick & Andrew Young, 2010. "Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 35-53, March.
    37. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    38. John C. Williams, 2004. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Working Paper Series 2004-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    40. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    41. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    42. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
    43. Francesco Sergi, 2018. "DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal," Working Papers 20181806, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    44. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    45. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Explaining ECB and Fed interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
    47. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    48. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    49. Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Operationalising Taylor-type Rules for the Indian Economy: Issues and Some Results (1992Q3 2001Q4)," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-07-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    50. Mikolajun, Irena & Lodge, David, 2016. "Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors," Working Paper Series 1948, European Central Bank.
    51. Ascari, Guido & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 129-152.
    52. Dominique Pepin, 2014. "The role of the "Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate" in monetary policy," Papers 1403.6112, arXiv.org.
    53. Claudiu T Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 388-400.
    54. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    55. Cheng-si Zhang & Da-yin Zhang & Jeffery Breece, 2011. "Financial Crisis, Monetary Policy, and Stock Market Volatility in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 371-388, November.
    56. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    57. Destefanis, Sergio & Fragetta, Matteo & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Does one size fit all in the Euro Area? Some counterfactual evidence," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 05/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit, revised 2021.
    58. Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2008. "Ideal And Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis Of Actual And Optimal Policy Measures," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 345-369, September.
    59. FIodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian monetary policy respond to asset prices? Evidence from a structural model," MPRA Paper 28039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    60. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    61. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
    62. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    63. Chengsi Zhang, 2008. "Structural instability of US inflation persistence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1147-1151.
    64. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, September.
    65. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    66. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan, 2007. "The natural rate of interest: which concept? which estimation method? which policy conclusions?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 667-688.
    67. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank.
    68. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
    70. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    71. Fiodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," MPRA Paper 27942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Daniel Komlan Fiodendji, 2012. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," Working Papers 1209E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    73. Dominique Pepin, 2010. "La BCE réagit-elle au prix des actifs financiers ?," Working Papers hal-00963626, HAL.
    74. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.
    75. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    76. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

  12. Estrella, Arturo, 2003. "Critical Values And P Values Of Bessel Process Distributions: Computation And Application To Structural Break Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1128-1143, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Tom Campbell & Nathaniel T. Wilcox, 2020. "Younger Federal District Court Judges Favor Presidential Power," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 181-202.
    2. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2017. "Inference and testing breaks in large dynamic panels with strong cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 259-274.
    3. Charles-Elie Rabier & Jean-Marc Azaïs & Jean-Michel Elsen & Céline Delmas, 2019. "Chi-square processes for gene mapping in a population with family structure," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 239-271, February.
    4. Javier Hidalgo & Marcia M Schafgans, 2015. "Inference and Testing Breaks in Large Dynamic Panels with Strong Cross Sectional Dependence," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2015/583, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    6. Paruolo, Paolo, 2006. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 143-168, May.
    7. Sandip Sinharay, 2016. "Person Fit Analysis in Computerized Adaptive Testing Using Tests for a Change Point," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 41(5), pages 521-549, October.
    8. A. Batsidis & N. Martín & L. Pardo & K. Zografos, 2016. "ϕ-Divergence Based Procedure for Parametric Change-Point Problems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 21-35, March.
    9. Carlos Castro & Stijn Ferrari, 2012. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Working Paper Research 228, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Assessing the relative power of structural break tests using a framework based on the approximate Bahadur slope," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 26-51, April.
    11. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2010. "Regime Specific Predictability in Predictive Regressions," MPRA Paper 29190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
    13. Matthew Davis & Fernando V. Ferreira, 2017. "Housing Disease and Public School Finances," NBER Working Papers 24140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2017. "Inference and testing breaks in large dynamic panels with strong cross sectional dependence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68839, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    17. Li, Kunpeng, 2018. "Spatial panel data models with structural change," MPRA Paper 85388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Piterbarg, Vladimir I. & Rodionov, Igor V., 2020. "High excursions of Bessel and related random processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 4859-4872.
    19. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    20. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Omtzigt, Pieter & Paruolo, Paolo, 2005. "Impact factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-68, September.
    22. K. B. S. Huth & L. J. Waldorp & J. Luigjes & A. E. Goudriaan & R. J. Holst & M. Marsman, 2022. "A Note on the Structural Change Test in Highly Parameterized Psychometric Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 1064-1080, September.
    23. Chen, Sanpan & Cui, Guowei & Zhang, Jianhua, 2017. "On testing for structural break of coefficients in factor-augmented regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 141-145.
    24. Davis, Matthew & Ferreira, Fernando, 2022. "Housing disease and public school finances," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

  13. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo.
    2. Andrew Levin & John C. Williams, 2000. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1781, Econometric Society.
    3. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2418, CESifo.
    4. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle and Indeterminacy," Macroeconomics 0507021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Matheron, J. & Poilly, C., 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," Working papers 148, Banque de France.
    7. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Christian R. Proaño, 2011. "Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 1112, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    9. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2019. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," PSE Working Papers halshs-01720655, HAL.
    10. Grégory Levieuge & Alexis Penot, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB: Why Such an Apparent Difference in Reactivity ?," Post-Print halshs-00364537, HAL.
    11. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    12. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    13. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    14. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "A Reappraisal of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff," Working Papers 479, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Soskice, David & Carlin, Wendy, 2004. "The 3-Equation New Keynesian Model: A Graphical Exposition," CEPR Discussion Papers 4588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Malik, Hamza & Scarth, William, 2005. "Is Price Flexibility De-Stabilizing? A Reconsideration," MPRA Paper 457, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    18. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Munich Reprints in Economics 19716, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Richard Dennis, 2004. "New Keynesian models and their fit to the data," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul9.
    21. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    22. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    24. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Western Hemisphere," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 19-52, December.
    25. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680647, HAL.
    26. Ahsan Ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik & Ghulam Saghir, 2007. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 395-404.
    27. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    28. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: opening remarks," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-20.
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    17. Rosen Azad Chowdhury & Dilshad Jahan & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi, 2024. "Monetary policy shock and impact asymmetry in bank lending channel: Evidence from the UK housing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 511-530, January.
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    27. María Fernanda Meneses-González & Angélica María Lizarazo-Cuellar & Diego Fernando Cuesta-Mora & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez, 2022. "Financial Development and Monetary Policy Transmission," Borradores de Economia 1219, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  15. Estrella, Arturo, 2001. "Mixing and matching: Prospective financial sector mergers and market valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2367-2392, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
    2. Saoussen Ben Gamra & Dominique Plihon, 2011. "Revenue diversification in emerging market banks: implications for financial performance," Working Papers hal-00598136, HAL.
    3. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2013. "The change in banks' product mix, diversification and performance: An application of multivariate GARCH to Canadian data," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp012013, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    4. Went, Peter, 2003. "A quantitative analysis of qualitative arguments in a bank merger," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 379-403.
    5. Guochen Pan & Jingyan Guo & Qiaoling Jing, 2016. "The Relationship between Insurance Industry and Banking Sector in China: Asymmetric Granger Causality Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 114-127, June.
    6. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2021. "Portfolio analysis of big US banks’ performance: the fee business lines factor," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 112-132, June.
    7. Chen, Ting-Hsuan & Lu, Chia-Wu & Hsieh, Meng-Fen, 2022. "Onshore guarantees for offshore loans and bank risk-taking: Evidences from Taiwanese banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. G. Capece & Di Pillo Francesca & N. Levialdi & G. Perrotta, 2017. "Understanding How the Strategic Similarities between Energy Companies Influence the Post-mergers and Acquisitions Performances," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 78-89.
    9. Slijkerman, Jan Frederik & Schoenmaker, Dirk & de Vries, Casper G., 2013. "Systemic risk and diversification across European banks and insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 773-785.
    10. Christian Calm¨¨s & Raymond Th¨¦oret, 2016. "The Asymmetric Impact of Portfolio Mix on Bank Performance over the Business Cycle: U.S. and Canadian Evidence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 57-74, February.
    11. Mühlnickel, Janina & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Consolidation and systemic risk in the international insurance industry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 187-202.
    12. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhäuser, Markus, 2010. "The anatomy of bank diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1274-1287, June.
    13. Dionne, Georges & Fenou, Akouété & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2023. "Consolidation of the US property and casualty insurance industry: Is climate risk a causal factor for mergers and acquisitions?," Working Papers 23-1, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    14. Barbara Casu & Panagiotis Dontis†Charitos & Sotiris Staikouras & Jonathan Williams, 2016. "Diversification, Size and Risk: the Case of Bank Acquisitions of Nonbank Financial Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 235-275, March.
    15. Chen, Zhian & Li, Donghui & Liao, Li & Moshirian, Fariborz & Szablocs, Csaba, 2009. "Expansion and consolidation of bancassurance in the 21st century," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-644, October.
    16. Rubi Ahmad & Mohamed Ariff & Michael Skully, 2007. "Factors Determining Mergers of Banks in Malaysia’s Banking Sector Reform," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-31, March-Jun.
    17. Nadine Gatzert & Hato Schmeiser & Stefan Schuckmann, 2008. "Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(3), pages 241-258, September.
    18. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhaeuser, Markus, 2006. "The Anatomy of Bank Diversification," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 1167, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    19. Mamun, Abdullah, 2023. "Understanding growth and its policy implications for Canadian credit unions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 652-665.
    20. Ines Ayadi, 2014. "Bancassurance in Tunisia: What Are the Efficiency Gains?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 159-166, July.
    21. Saoussen Ben Gamra & Dominique Plihon, 2011. "Revenue diversification in emerging market banks: implications for financial performance," CEPN Working Papers hal-00598136, HAL.
    22. Lee Soon-Jae & Jung Sechang & Lee Bong-Joo, 2006. "Does Bancassurance Increase the Efficiency of the Financial Industry? A Case for Korea," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-17, February.
    23. Narjess Boubakri & Georges Dionne & Thouraya Triki, 2006. "Consolidation and Value Creation in the Insurance Industry: the Role of Governance," Cahiers de recherche 0626, CIRPEE.
    24. Korhonen, Pekka & Voutilainen, Raimo, 2006. "Finding the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1285-1299, December.
    25. Nestorov Valentina, 2017. "Convergence in the Functioning of Banking and Nonbanking Financial Institutions in Serbia," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(3), pages 353-376, September.
    26. Vallascas, Francesco & Hagendorff, Jens, 2011. "The impact of European bank mergers on bidder default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 902-915, April.
    27. Financial Systems and Bank Examination Department, 2005. "The Expansion of Corporate Groups in the Financial Services Industry: Trends in Financial Conglomeration in Major Industrial Countries," Bank of Japan Research Papers 2005-12-28, Bank of Japan.
    28. Lin Lin & Hsien-Chang Kuo & I-Liang Lin, 2008. "Merger and optimal number of firms: an integrated simulation approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2413-2421.
    29. Oleg Curbatov & Marie Louyot-Gallicher, 2015. "Knowedge Marketing," Post-Print hal-01423209, HAL.
    30. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "Off-Balance-Sheet Activities and the Shadow Banking System: An Application of the Hausman Test with Higher Moments Instruments," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    31. Fields, L. Paige & Fraser, Donald R. & Kolari, James W., 2007. "Bidder returns in bancassurance mergers: Is there evidence of synergy?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3646-3662, December.
    32. Mamun, Abdullah & Meier, Garrett & Wilson, Craig, 2023. "How do noninterest income activities affect bank holding company performance?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    33. Dionne, Georges & Fenou, Akouété & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2024. "Insurers’ M&A in the United States during the 1990-2022 period: Is the Fed monetary policy a causal factor," Working Papers 24-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    34. Kanas, Angelos & Vasiliou, Dimitrios & Eriotis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 990-1005.
    35. Chiaramonte, Laura & Dreassi, Alberto & Piserà, Stefano & Khan, Ashraf, 2023. "Mergers and acquisitions in the financial industry: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    36. Jan Frederik Slijkerman & Dirk Schoenmaker & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Risk Diversification by European Financial Conglomerates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-110/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    37. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2023. "Bank performance before and after the subprime crisis: Evidence from pooled data on big US banks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 472-516, June.
    38. De Vries, C.G., 2005. "The simple economics of bank fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 803-825, April.
    39. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June.

  16. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.

    Cited by:

    1. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Working Papers hal-04141595, HAL.
    2. Chen, Sichong, 2013. "How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Xi Yang, 2016. "Predicting bank failures: The leverage versus the risk-weighted capital ratio," Post-Print hal-01671522, HAL.
    4. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009. "Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
    6. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Zimmermann, Tom, 2012. "Fiscal consolidations and banking stability," MPRA Paper 42229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Konstantinos Drakos, 2012. "US banks' capitalization speed‐of‐adjustment: a microeconometric approach," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 270-286, July.
    8. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," CAMA Working Papers 2012-56, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    10. J.A. Bikker & D.F. Gerritsen & Steffie M. Schwillens, 2016. "Competing for savings: how important is creditworthiness during the crisis?," Working Papers 16-01, Utrecht School of Economics.
    11. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Konstantin Makrelov & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2021. "The impact of higher leverage ratios on the South African economy," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 184-207, July.
    13. Gallemore, J., 2012. "Deferred Tax Assests and Bank Regulatory Capital," Other publications TiSEM c4ed0879-0d89-4594-a8f5-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. J. Navas & P. Dhanavanthan & D. Lazar, 2021. "Is Risk Based Capital Ratio a True Measure of the Soundness of Banks? Evidence From India," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 92-102, May.
    16. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Central and Eastern European Banks," MPRA Paper 74560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Annalisa Bucalossi & Antonio Scalia, 2016. "Leverage ratio, central bank operations and repo market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Acharya, Viral & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2012. "Securitization Without Risk Transfer," CEPR Discussion Papers 8769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Fiscal consolidations and bank balance sheets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 74-90.
    20. Robert Bichsel & Jürg Blum, 2002. "The Relationship between Risk and Capital in Swiss commercial Banks: A Panel Study," Working Papers 02.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    21. Stelios Markoulis & Panagiotis Ioannou & Spiros Martzoukos, 2023. "Bank distress in the European Union 2008–2015: A closer look at capital, size and revenue diversification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 792-820, January.
    22. Blum, Jürg M., 2008. "Why 'Basel II' may need a leverage ratio restriction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1699-1707, August.
    23. Ehab Zaki & Rahim Bah & Ananth Rao, 2011. "Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 304-320, June.
    24. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Karminsky, Alexandr & Golovan, Sergei, 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    25. Yomna Daoud & Aida Kammoun, 2020. "Financial Stability and Bank Capital: The Case of Islamic Banks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 361-369.
    26. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
    27. Huberto M. Ennis, 2004. "Some recent trends in commercial banking," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Spr), pages 41-61.
    28. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
    29. Andrés Felipe García-Suaza & Jose Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés Murcia pabón & Feenando tenjo Galarza, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Bank Capital Buffers in an Emerging Economy: Size Does Matter," Borradores de Economia 8305, Banco de la Republica.
    30. Shaffer, Sherrill, 2007. "Equity duration and convexity when firms can fail or stagnate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 233-241, December.
    31. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
    32. Korte, Josef, 2015. "Catharsis—The real effects of bank insolvency and resolution," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 213-231.
    33. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    34. Gombola, Michael J. & Ho, Amy Yueh-Fang & Huang, Chin-Chuan, 2016. "The effect of leverage and liquidity on earnings and capital management: Evidence from U.S. commercial banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 35-58.
    35. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    36. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    37. Berardi, Simone & Marcelletti, Alessandra, 2017. "Optimal Bank Capital Requirements: An Asymmetric Information Perspective," LEAP Working Papers 2017/2, Luiss Institute for European Analysis and Policy.
    38. Tonatiuh Peña & Serafín Martínez & Bolanle Abudu, 2011. "Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Some Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Herbert Dawid & Willi Semmler (ed.), Computational Methods in Economic Dynamics, pages 109-131, Springer.
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    84. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2018. "Basel III Leverage and Capital Ratio over the Economic Cycle in the Czech Republic and its Comparison with the CEE Region," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 5-23.
    85. Andrew G. Haldane & Vasileios Madouros, 2012. "El perro y el frisbee," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 14(27), pages 13-56, July-Dece.
    86. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," NBER Working Papers 27537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    88. Cleary, Sean & Hebb, Greg, 2016. "An efficient and functional model for predicting bank distress: In and out of sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-111.
    89. Capponi, Agostino & Dooley, John M. & Oet, Mikhail V. & Ong, Stephen J., 2017. "Capital and resolution policies: The US interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 229-239.
    90. D. Fernández-Arias & M. López-Martín & T. Montero-Romero & F. Martínez-Estudillo & F. Fernández-Navarro, 2018. "Financial Soundness Prediction Using a Multi-classification Model: Evidence from Current Financial Crisis in OECD Banks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 275-297, June.
    91. Kraeussl, Roman, 2003. "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    92. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Beyond common equity: The influence of secondary capital on bank insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    93. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    94. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2018. "Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc [Prediction of banking difficulties: an early warning model for moroccan banking system]," MPRA Paper 95165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    95. Jo-Hui Chen & Chih-Sean Chen, 2011. "The effects of international off-site surveillance on bank rating changes," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1313-1329, October.
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  17. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Ernst Baltensperger, 1998. "The Question of Bank Capital Regulation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 645-648, December.

  18. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 191-200.

    Cited by:

    1. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
    2. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. João A. C. Santos, 2000. "Bank capital regulation in contemporary banking theory: a review of the literature," BIS Working Papers 90, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. David T. Llewellyn, 2001. "A regulatory regime for financial stability," Working Papers 48, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Daoud Barkat Daoud, 2003. "Quelle réglementation du capital bancaire pour les pays en développement ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(4), pages 311-323.
    6. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2004. "Rebalancing the three pillars of Basel II," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 7-21.

  19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.

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    1. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A Macro-Finance approach," Working Paper Research 254, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. O'Rourke, Kevin & Ellison, Martin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Vidal Fernadez Montoro, 2001. "Expectations and Behaviour of the Spanish Treasury Bill Rates Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 5(1), pages 61-83, Summer.
    5. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    6. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield, 2005. "Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2005 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    10. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
    12. James Peery Cover & Hye-Jin Lee, 2015. "Do market prices aggregate information about macroeconomic uncertainty (or risk)?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(42), pages 4511-4534, September.
    13. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
    16. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2022. "Some international evidence on the causal impact of the yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache & Claudia Pacella, 2020. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1288, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    19. Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0012021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
    22. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
    23. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2002. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie007, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
    24. Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
    26. Jan Annaert & Marc De Ceuster & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2010. "What determines euro area bank CDS spreads ?," Working Paper Research 190, National Bank of Belgium.
    27. Pierre Siklos, 1999. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia vs. the US," Research Paper Series 25, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    28. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    29. Valentin Haddad & Serhiy Kozak & Shrihari Santosh, 2017. "Predicting Relative Returns," NBER Working Papers 23886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    31. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
    32. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
    33. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    34. Unn Lindholm & Marcus Mossfeldt & Pär Stockhammar, 2020. "Forecasting inflation in Sweden," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 39-68, April.
    35. Georgoutsos D. & Kouretas G., 2002. "Cointegration, Uncoverd Interest Parity and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Some International Evidence," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 7-22, January -.
    36. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    37. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard & Ligthart, Jenny, 2013. "On the impact of the global financial crisis on the euro area," Research Report 13011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    38. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper series 32_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    39. Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    40. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?," MPRA Paper 32255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    42. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2020. "Predicting Recessions with a Frontier Measure of Output Gap: An Application to Italian Economy," CEPA Working Papers Series WP102020, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    43. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    45. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    46. Lael Brainard, 2018. "Sustaining Full Employment and Inflation around Target : a speech at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, New York, May 31, 2018," Speech 1005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    33. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
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    46. Gupta, Rangan & Risse, Marian & Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "The role of term spread and pattern changes in predicting stock returns and volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test using over 250 years of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 391-405.
    47. Paya, Ivan & Matthews, Kent & Peel, David, 2005. "The term spread and real economic activity in the US inter-war period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 331-343, June.
    48. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Glen Larsen & Bruce Resnick, 2008. "Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, March.
    50. Lars Jonung, 2005. "Proceedings of the 2004 first annual DG ECFIN research conference on “Business Cycles and Growth in Europeâ€," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 227, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    51. Ivan Paya & Kent Matthews, 2004. "Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 797-801.
    52. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    53. Kian Tehranian, 2023. "Can Machine Learning Catch Economic Recessions Using Economic and Market Sentiments?," Papers 2308.16200, arXiv.org.
    54. Elliott Middleton, 2001. "'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting," Papers nlin/0108012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2001.
    55. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2023. "Yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE model with housing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    56. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
    57. Charles Steindel, 1997. "Measuring economic activity and economic welfare: what are we missing?," Research Paper 9732, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    58. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    59. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    60. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    61. Ackon, Kwabena Meneabe, 2018. "Essays In Fiscal Policy And State Dependence Fiscal Policy Innovations Using A New Econometric Approach," MPRA Paper 100739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Kim, Jong-Min & Kim, Dong H. & Jung, Hojin, 2021. "Applications of machine learning for corporate bond yield spread forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    63. Yutaka Kurihara, 2014. "Does High Yield Spread Dampen Economic Growth?: The Case of US-Japan," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 01-09, April.
    64. Melvin Muzi Khomo & Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2007. "Forecasting Recession In South Africa: A Comparison Of The Yield Curve And Other Economic Indicators," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 194-212, June.
    65. Ross McCown, James, 2001. "Yield curves and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 767-788, April.
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    67. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Rodriguez, E. & Ibarra-Valdez, C., 2020. "Medium-term cycles in the dynamics of the Dow Jones Index for the period 1985–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 546(C).
    68. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.
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    79. Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," Working Papers EMS_2010_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.

  24. Estrella, Arturo, 1996. "Comment on The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 447-451, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.

  25. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "A prolegomenon to future capital requirements," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12.

    Cited by:

    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 6655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
    3. Darryll Hendricks & Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Bank capital requirements for market risk: the internal models approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 1-12.
    4. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Franz R. Hahn, 2001. "Macroprudential Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," WIFO Working Papers 154, WIFO.
    6. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    7. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December.
    9. von Hagen, Jürgen & Fender, Ingo, 1998. "Central bank policy in a more perfect financial system," ZEI Working Papers B 03-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Beverly Hirtle & Mark E. Levonian & Marc R. Saidenberg & Stefan Walter & David M. Wright, 2001. "Using credit risk models for regulatory capital: issues and options," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 19-36.
    11. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 191-200.

  26. Arturo Estrella & Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Soo Shin & Stefan Walter, 1994. "The price risk of options positions: measurement and capital requirements," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Sum), pages 44-75.

    Cited by:

    1. Beate Reszat, 1997. "Sources of increasing systemic risk in international financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 32(5), pages 211-219, September.
    2. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
    3. Powell, Andrew & Balzarotti, Verónica, 1997. "Capital Requirements for Latin American Banks in Relation to their Market Risks: The Relevance of the Basle 1996 Amendment to Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6065, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Vlaar, Peter J. G., 2000. "Value at risk models for Dutch bond portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1131-1154, July.
    5. Andrew Powell & Veronica Balzarotti, 1997. "Requisitos de capital de los bancos latinoamericanos en relación con sus niveles de riesgo de mercado: importancia de la Enmienda de Basilea de 1996 para América Latina," Research Department Publications 4073, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Michel Aglietta, 1996. "Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 1996-01, CEPII research center.
    7. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691.

  27. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Arturo Estrella, 1988. "Consistent margin requirements: are they feasible?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Sum), pages 61-79.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Fortune, 2003. "Margin requirements across equity-related instruments: how level is the playing field?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 31-50.
    2. Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 2001. "Race to the center: competition for the Nikkei 225 futures trade," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 219-242, July.

Chapters

  1. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Productivity, monetary policy and financial indicators," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 166-76, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2005. "Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 273-98, Bank for International Settlements.

  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Books

    Sorry, no citations of books recorded.
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