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Citations of
Arturo Estrella

For current contact information and a more complete listing of works, please see here

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Working papers

  1. Arturo Estrella & Tobias Adrian, 2009. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Staff Reports 397, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    2. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]

  2. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    4. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2005. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Working Papers 2001-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    9. Eva Ferreira & María Isabel Martínez & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200511, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    10. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    11. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    13. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has models’ forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    14. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    15. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    16. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation on Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 318-342, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    18. Andrea Nobili, 2007. "Assessing the predictive power of financial spreads in the euro area: does parameters instability matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 177-195, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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    20. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    21. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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    22. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    23. Chiara Pederzoli, 2007. "Default risk: Poisson mixture and the business cycle," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07052, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
    24. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487. [Downloadable!]
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    25. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models Across Frequencies," CEIS Research Paper 82, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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    26. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
    27. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2006. "Extracting inflation expectations from the term structure: the Fisher equation in a multivariate SDF framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 261-277. [Downloadable!]
    28. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December. [Downloadable!]
    29. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    30. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    31. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    32. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    33. Kursat Kunter & Norbert Janssen, 2002. "Credibility Of Monetary Regimes : Is Inflation Targeting Different?," Discussion Papers 0201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
    34. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/13, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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    35. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    36. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    37. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    38. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    39. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]

  4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Gonçalves Silva & Marinho Gomes Andrade & Milton Barossi-Filho, 2004. "Understanding Brazilian Unemployment Structure: A Mixed Autoregressive Approach," Econometrics 0408003, EconWPA, revised 13 Aug 2004. [Downloadable!]
    2. Angelo M. Fasolo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: a New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    3. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective," Macroeconomics 0304003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    5. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Jim Engle-Warnick & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2006. "An Experimental Test of Taylor-Type Rules with Inexperienced Central Bankers," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-05, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 059, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Working Paper Series 91, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    10. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco manzo, 2005. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Macroeconomics 0508005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Kristoffer P. NIMARK, 2003. "Monetary Policy Performance and the Accuracy of Observations," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/08, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    12. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    13. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213. [Downloadable!]
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2005. "The Fed after Greenspan," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 317-332, Summer. [Downloadable!]
    15. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    16. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    17. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    18. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    19. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification and Frequency Dependence in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers e06-12, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    20. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    21. Takeshi Kimura & Takushi Kurozumi, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    22. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    23. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003629, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    24. Adam Cagliarini & Alexandra Heath, 2000. "Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    25. Gino Cateau, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty," Working Papers 05-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    26. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003085, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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    27. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
    28. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    29. Eva Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The NAICU and the Phillips curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data," KOF Working papers 08-211, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    30. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    31. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    32. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
    33. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    34. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    35. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    36. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "An Overview of Some Historical Brazilian Macroeconomic Series and Some Open Questions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 592, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    37. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2008. "A Phillips curve to the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 15158, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    38. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
    39. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    40. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    41. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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    42. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2005. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 46, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    43. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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    44. W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 2000. "Output Gap and Inflation in the EU," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 44, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    45. Paulo Springer de Freitas & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 18, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    46. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    47. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    48. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2008. "Fiscal Policy under Balanced Budget and Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 0803, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    49. Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, . "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]

  5. Jeff Fuhrer & Arturo Estrella, 1999. "Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 621, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    1. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    4. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Banco de España Working Papers 0718, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    5. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 83-112. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    8. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    9. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 03/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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    10. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 113-144. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Which Structural Parameters Are "Structural"? Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Economic Models," Working Papers 08-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    12. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S. & Jörg Breitung, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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    13. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    14. Grégory Levieuge & Alexis Penot, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB: Why such an apparent difference in reactivity?," Working Papers 0804, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
    15. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    16. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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    17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    18. Corrado, L. & Holly, S., 2000. "Piecewise Linear Feedback Rules in a Non Linear Model of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from the US and the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0019, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    19. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, . "Monetary policy and stagflation in the UK," Bank of England working papers 155, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    21. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 49, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    22. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    23. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    24. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 67-68, pages 12, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
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    25. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    26. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    27. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Working Paper Series 114, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    28. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Mixing Feedback Rules and the Distribution of Inflation and Output," CEIS Research Paper 37, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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    29. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
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    30. Marie Diron & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 564, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    31. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    32. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]

  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Gregory R. Duffee, 1996. "Treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads: an empirical analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    3. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
    4. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    5. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    6. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2006. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the European Union," Working Papers 0611, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    8. Krylova, Elizaveta, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy. Case of Austria," Economics Series 111, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    9. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    10. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    11. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    13. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2005. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Working Papers 2001-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    15. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    16. Irac, D. & Sédillot, F., 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Documents de Travail 88, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    17. David L. Haugh, 2005. "The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle, 1953-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    18. Farzan Aminian & E. Suarez & Mehran Aminian & Daniel Walz, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Data with Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 71-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Bennett McCallum, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules, comments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    20. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Eva Ferreira & María Isabel Martínez & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200511, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    22. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
    24. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    27. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas, 2002. "Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-05, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    29. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    30. Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    31. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Does the term structure predict real economic activity in Japan?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 249-257, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    32. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    34. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    35. Frank Smets, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle: commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 235-243. [Downloadable!]
    36. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November. [Downloadable!]
    37. Chiara Pederzoli, 2007. "Default risk: Poisson mixture and the business cycle," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07052, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
    38. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    39. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Angelos Kanas, 2008. "Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from UK and US," Working Papers 0807, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    40. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    41. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    42. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    43. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
    44. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 279, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    45. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
    46. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    47. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2005. "Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts," DNB Working Papers 035, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    48. M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    49. Dick van Dijk & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 811-827. [Downloadable!]
    50. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    51. Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "The real impact of financial shocks : evidence from the Republic of Korea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2010, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    52. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    53. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
    54. Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    55. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    56. Juha Junttila, 2003. "Detecting speculative bubbles in an IT-intensive stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 166-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    57. Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006. "An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," MPRA Paper 1072, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    58. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    59. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Nonstationarity in Panels of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates with Factors," IEPR Working Papers 05.35, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    60. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    61. Gregory R. Duffee & Steven D. Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    62. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    63. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    64. George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2003. "Does Beta React to Market Conditions? Estimates of Bull and Bear Betas using a Nonlinear Market Model with an Endogenous Threshold Parameter," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    65. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    66. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    67. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Young Ho Eom & Jun Uno, 2000. "Credit Risk and the Pricing of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-069, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
    68. Rodrigo Alfaro & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara & Helmut Franken, 2005. "The bank lending channel in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 128-45 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    69. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    70. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    71. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    72. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle," Kiel Working Papers 966, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    73. Ivan Paya & Kent Matthews, 2004. "Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 797-801, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    74. Junttila, Juha, 2002. "Forecasting the macroeconomy with current financial market information: Europe and the United States," Research Discussion Papers 2/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    75. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    76. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    77. Harding, Don, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View," MPRA Paper 3698, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    78. Alexandra Krystalogianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK commercial real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(20), pages 2347-2356, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    79. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    80. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    81. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    82. Angélica Arosemena, . "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    83. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    84. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    85. Hanns Hagen & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1996. "Interest rate-based forecasts of german economic growth: A note," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 763-773, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    86. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    87. O. Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen & C. Tanggaard, . "Estimating Yield Curves by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-54, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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    88. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    89. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    90. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 125-145, January-J. [Downloadable!]
    91. Izabel Cristina de Lima & Sueli Moro & Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2006. "Ciclos E Previsão Cíclica: Um Modelo De Indicadores Antecedentes Para A Economia Brasileira," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 13, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]

  7. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    2. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    3. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    6. Rebecca N. Coke & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

  8. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Viñals, José, 2001. "Monetary Policy Issues in a Low Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  9. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach," Research Paper 9739, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  10. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Kaiser & Andrea Szczesny, 2000. "Einfache oekonomische Verfahren fuer die Kreditrisikomessung," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-28, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    2. Stavros Peristiani, 2003. "Evaluating the riskiness of initial public offerings: 1980-2000," Staff Reports 167, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    3. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    5. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2002. "Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 314, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    6. Scott Templeton & David Zilberman & Seung Yoo & Andrew Dabalen, 2008. "Household Use of Agricultural Chemicals for Soil-Pest Management and Own Labor for Yard Work," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 91-108, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    8. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2006. "Assessing The Response Of Farm Households To Dairy Policy Reform In Israel," Discussion Papers 7134, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328. [Downloadable!]
    10. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?," Staff Reports 289, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    11. Eric Danan & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2004. "Are preferences incomplete? An experimental study using flexible choices," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-23, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
    12. Wojan, Timothy R. & Lambert, Dayton M. & McGranahan, David A., 2007. "The Emergence of Rural Artistic Havens: A First Look," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April. [Downloadable!]
    13. A. Montini, 1999. "I consumi alimentari delle famiglie italiane: un modello per le decisioni di consumo extradomestico utilizzando i microdati di spesa familiare," Working Papers 364, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
    14. Verbeke, Wim & Ward, Ronald W. & Viaene, Jacques, 1999. "Exploring Influencing Factors On Meat Consumption Decisions Through Probit Analysis: The Case Of Fresh Meat Demand In Belgium," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21540, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    15. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Epperson, James E., 2009. "The Last of the American Ag Economists," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49272, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Zhang, Feng & Park, Timothy A., 2004. "Computer Adoption Patterns Of U.S. Small Businesses," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    18. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    19. Randall G. Kesselring & Dale Bremmer, 2006. "Female income and the divorce decision: evidence from micro data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1605-1616, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Langpap, Christian, 2003. "Conservation Of Endangered Species: Can Incentives Work For Private Landowners?," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21972, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    21. Jaakko Simonen & Philip McCann, 2008. "Innovation, R&D cooperation and labor recruitment: evidence from Finland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 181-194, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    22. Nathaniel Wilcox, 2004. "Believing in Economic Theory: Sex, Lies, Evidence, Trust and Ideology," Working Papers 2004-06 Classification-, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
    23. Antonio Di Cesare, 2006. "Do market-based indicators anticipate rating agencies? Evidence for international banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 593, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    25. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    26. Cranfield, J.A.L. & Magnusson, Erik, 2003. "Canadian Consumer's Willingness-To-Pay For Pesticide Free Food Products: An Ordered Probit Analysis," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 6(04). [Downloadable!]
    27. Bronwyn H. Hall, Albert N. Link and John T. Scott., 2000. "Universities as Research Partners," Economics Working Papers E00-276, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    29. Nina Meinel, 2009. "Comparison of performance measures for multivariate discrete models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 159-174, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    30. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    31. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2003. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?," Working Papers 2003-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    32. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 135-175. [Downloadable!]
    33. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers 2001/07, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    34. Nelson, Mack C. & Liu, Xuanli, 2005. "Demand Potential for Goat Meat in Southern States: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-State Goat Meat Consumer Survey," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19224, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    35. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    36. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    37. Ulrich Fritsche, 2001. "Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?," Macroeconomics 0012022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    38. Park, Timothy A. & Hartley, Judy, 1998. "Promoting Farm Safety With Economic And Managerial Incentives," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20929, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    39. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
    40. Fabio Moneta, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 294, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    41. Elliott Middleton, 2001. "'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting," Quantitative Finance Papers nlin/0108012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2001. [Downloadable!]

  11. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Brückner & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Can Money Matter for Interest Rate Policy?," Working Paper Series in Economics 6, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    5. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Wooford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Working Paper Series 12, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    7. Cara S. Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1999. "What was behind the M2 breakdown?," Staff Reports 83, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Krylova, Elizaveta, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy. Case of Austria," Economics Series 111, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    9. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Working Paper Series 91, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand," Working Papers 2002_09, York University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
    13. Philip N. Jefferson, 1997. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    14. Luca Benati, 2009. "Long Run Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    15. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001419, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," NBER Working Papers 7177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. D.M. Nachane & Amlendu Kumar Dubey, 2008. "The vanishing role of money in the macroeconomy: An Empirical investigation based on spectral and wavelet analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-022, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India. [Downloadable!]
    18. Virginie Traclet, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?," Working Papers 04-28, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    19. Ellis W Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9704, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Ramon Moreno & Reuven Glick, 2001. "Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    21. Keith Sill, 1999. "Forecasts, indicators and monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
    22. Joon-Ho Hahm & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Causes of the Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy," NBER Working Papers 7483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    23. Rodolfo Maino & Bernard Laurens, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    24. Robert-Paul Berben, 2003. "Does stock market uncertainty impair the use of monetary indicators in the euro area?," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-15, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    25. Jan Gottschalk & Felipe Martinez Rico & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2000. "Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone," Kiel Working Papers 984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    26. Paolo PAESANI, 2003. "Will the Monetary Pillar Stay? A Few Lessons from the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/10, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    28. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2005. "Interest rates and output in the long-run," Working Paper Series 434, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Strategies for Controlling Inflation," NBER Working Papers 6122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    31. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    32. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    33. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2004. "Monetary Policy Uncovered: Theory and Practice," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. Pablo García S & Rodrigo Valdés, 2003. "Dinero y Conducción de la Política Monetaria con Metas de Inflación," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 09, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    35. Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84. [Downloadable!]
    36. Bradley T. Ewing, 2002. "Macroeconomic news and the returns of financial companies," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 439-446. [Downloadable!]
    37. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    38. Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Working Papers 2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    39. James P. Dow, Jr. & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1998. "The effect of stock prices on the demand for money market mutual funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    40. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2005. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0506, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    41. R.W. Hafer, 2001. "What remains of monetarism?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 13-33. [Downloadable!]
    42. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H. McCarthy, 2003. "The Behavior of Money and Other Economic Variables: Two Natural Experiments," International Finance 0311011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    43. Chiara Oldani, 2005. "An Overview of the Literature about Derivatives," Macroeconomics 0504004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    44. Jan Gottschalk & Susanne Bröck, 2000. "Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 69-89.
    45. Robert-Paul Berben, 2007. "Does stock market uncertainty impair the use of monetary indicators in the euro area?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 13-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    46. Michael Dotsey & Carl D. Lantz & Lawrence Santucci, 2000. "Is money useful in the conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 23-48. [Downloadable!]
    47. Bradley T. Ewing & Shawn M. Forbes & James E. Payne, 2003. "The effects of macroeconomic shocks on sector-specific returns," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 201-207, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    48. Barry E. Jones & Livio Stracca, 2006. "Are money and consumption additively separable in the euro area? A non-parametric approach," Working Paper Series 704, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    49. Abelardo Salazar Neaves & Oliver Hossfeld & Jan Hagen & Kai Carstensen, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    50. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    51. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2008. "Long Run Inflation Indicators – Why the ECB got it Right," Working Papers 2008:17, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    52. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  12. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "Taylor, Black and Scholes: series approximations and risk management pitfalls," Research Paper 9501, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Pritsker, 1996. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Methodologies: Accuracy versus Computational Time," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-48, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    2. Michel Aglietta, 1996. "Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 1996-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    3. Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, . "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]

  13. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Alison Tarditi, 1996. "Modelling the Australian Exchange Rate, Long Bond Yield and Inflationary Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9608, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    5. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    6. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    7. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    8. Eli M. Remolona & Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    9. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    10. Francisco Alonso-Sánchez & Juan Ayuso-Huertas & Jorge Martínez-Pagés, 2000. "El contenido informativo de los tipos de interés sobre la tasa de inflación española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 455-471, May. [Downloadable!]
    11. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December. [Downloadable!]
    12. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    14. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    15. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates; A Parametric Approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    16. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    17. K. Kanagasabapathy & Rajan Goyal, 2002. "Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity-- An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy," IMF Working Papers 02/91, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    18. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    19. Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion," Economics Program Working Papers 01-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
    20. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    21. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    22. Angélica Arosemena, . "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    23. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    24. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1999. "The Information Content of the French and German Government Bond Tield Curves: Why Such Differences?," Documents de Travail 61, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    25. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]

  14. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Mika Vaihekoski, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 19-36, Spring. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Bruce Kasman, 1993. "A comparison of monetary policy operating procedures in six industrial countries," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    3. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, . "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    4. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Gregory R. Duffee, 1996. "Treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads: an empirical analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    6. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1992. "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Working papers 3450-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Anders Møller Christensen & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2005. "US Monetary Police 1988-2004: An Empirical Analysis," FRU Working Papers 2005/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    11. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Tkacz, Greg, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    12. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    13. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2006. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the European Union," Working Papers 0611, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    14. Gianna Boero & C. Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    15. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 121-44, September. [Downloadable!]
    16. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1994. "The Role of Judgment and Discretion in the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Consequences of Changing Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    20. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    21. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    22. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    23. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    24. Chee Jin Yap & Gerard Gannon, 2007. "Factors Affecting the Credit Spreads Behaviour of USD Malaysian Bonds," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2007_10, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," NBER Working Papers 3376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    26. González, Manuel, 2004. "La Curva de Retorno y el Modelo C-CAPM: Evidencia para Chile," MPRA Paper 309, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    27. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    28. John Morton & Paul Wood, 1993. "Interest rate operating procedures of foreign central banks," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    29. Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    31. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    33. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    34. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    35. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 5279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    36. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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    37. Chi-Sang Tam & Ip-Wing Yu, 2008. "Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 82-91. [Downloadable!]
    38. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    39. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2003. "How Much Leverage is Too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?," IMF Working Papers 03/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    41. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    42. Farzan Aminian & E. Suarez & Mehran Aminian & Daniel Walz, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Data with Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 71-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    43. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "Dynamic correlations and forecasting of term structure slopes in eurocurrency market," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0226, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
    44. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    45. Gogas, Periklis & Chionis, Dionisios & Pragkidis, Ioannis, 2009. "Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity," MPRA Paper 13911, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    46. Nico Valckx, 2004. "The decomposition of US and Euro area stock and bond returns and their sensitivity to economic state variables," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-173, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    47. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51. [Downloadable!]
    48. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    49. Eva Ferreira & María Isabel Martínez & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200511, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    50. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    51. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101. [Downloadable!]
    52. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    53. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    54. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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    55. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    56. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35. [Downloadable!]
    57. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    58. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    59. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas, 2002. "Common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from a non-linear vector autoregression approach," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-05, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    60. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    61. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    62. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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    63. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    64. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation on Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    65. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    66. James H. Stock & Mark M. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 71-90. [Downloadable!]
    67. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Does the term structure predict real economic activity in Japan?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 249-257, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    68. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000. [Downloadable!]
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    69. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    70. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    71. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    72. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    73. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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    74. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Causalité de long terme et amélioration de la prévision : application aux courbes de taux d'intérêt," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 54, pages 02, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
    75. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    76. Jesús Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED\'S reaction function? ," DFAEII Working Papers 200402, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    77. Gollier, Christian, 2003. "Transitory Shocks to GNP and the Consumption-Based Term Structure of Interest Rates," IDEI Working Papers 175, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    78. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2001. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Cost of Capital: An Alternative Implication of the Q Theory of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    79. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    80. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487. [Downloadable!]
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    81. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    82. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    83. Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Empirical Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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    84. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    85. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models Across Frequencies," CEIS Research Paper 82, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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    86. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    87. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
    88. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 279, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    89. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana
      [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]      ," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    90. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Documents de Travail 234, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    91. Bank for International Settlements and Bank Negara Malaysia, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
    92. R. Anton Braun & Etsuro Shioji, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-252, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    93. Juan Ignacio Pena & Rosa Rodriguez, 2006. "On The Economic Link Between Asset Prices And Real Activity," Business Economics Working Papers wb063209, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
    94. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    95. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 347-368. [Downloadable!]
    96. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
    97. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    98. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    99. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
    100. Edward E. Leamer, 2001. "The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions," NBER Working Papers 8192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    101. Andrea Berardi & Walter Torous, 2002. "Does the term structure forecast," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1044, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    102. Jean-Francois Fillion, . "L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique," Working Papers 94-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    103. Franzoni, Francesco & Adrian, Tobias, 2005. "Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM," Les Cahiers de Recherche 828, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
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    104. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Asymmetry In The Link Between The Yield Spread And Industrial Production. Threshold Effects And Forecasting," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-41, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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    105. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    106. Jean-Francois Fillion, 1995. "L'endettement du secteur prive au Canada: un examen macroeconomique," Macroeconomics 9502006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    107. Helen Popper, 1995. "Term premia comovement in German, Japanese, and U.S. domestic markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 49-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    108. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December. [Downloadable!]
    109. Antonio Roma & Walter Torous, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1162, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    110. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    111. Jesús Vázquez, 2009. "Does the term spread play a role in the fed funds rate reaction function? An empirical investigation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 175-199, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    112. Melendres Howe, 2000. "Bayesian approach to yield curve modelling with application to the simulation of EMU environments: generating scenarios by modelling yield curve movements," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 176-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    113. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December. [Downloadable!]
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    114. Hortensia Fontanals Albiol & Sergio Zuniga, 2002. "Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revision," Working Papers in Economics 87, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
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    115. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    116. Wolfgang Drobetz & Gabrielle Wanzenried, 2006. "What determines the speed of adjustment to the target capital structure?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 941-958, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    117. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    118. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    119. Hawtrey, K.M., 2002. "The Yield Spread and Real Economic Activity: The Impact of Globalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 203-219, June Spec. [Downloadable!]
    120. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    121. J. Breitung & B. Candelon, . "Testing for short and long-run causality: The case of the yield spread and economic growth," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-96, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    122. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    123. Juha Ilmari Seppala, 2000. "The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence from the U.K. Index-Linked Bonds," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0245, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    124. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    125. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate
      ," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    126. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    127. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 339-354. [Downloadable!]
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    128. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440. [Downloadable!]
    129. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    130. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2002. "Predicting Australian Growth and Recession Via the Yield Curve," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 233-250, June Spec. [Downloadable!]
    131. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2008. "An Empirical Evaluation of Structural Credit-Risk Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 1-53, March. [Downloadable!]
    132. Michael Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51. [Downloadable!]
    133. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    134. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2008. "Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    135. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    136. Landschoot, A. van, 2003. "The term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds," Discussion Paper 46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    137. Li L. Ong & Srobona Mitra & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    138. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates; A Parametric Approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    139. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    140. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    141. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    142. K. Kanagasabapathy & Rajan Goyal, 2002. "Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity-- An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy," IMF Working Papers 02/91, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    143. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    144. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    145. Astrid Van Landschoot, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    146. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    147. N. Valckx, 2001. "Stock and Bond Market Sensitivities to Monetary Variables," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 680, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    148. Chan Guk Huh, 1993. "Interest rate spreads as indicators for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 26. [Downloadable!]
    149. Mohamad Shaaf, 2000. "Predicting Recession Using the Yield Curve: An Artificial Intelligence and Econometric Comparison," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 171-190, Spring. [Downloadable!]
    150. Ivan Paya & Kent Matthews, 2004. "Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 797-801, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    151. Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Old and the New in the U.S. Economic Expansion," Economics Program Working Papers 01-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
    152. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    153. R. Paap & Ph.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "Does the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Report 108, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    154. Colin Simkin, 1998. "About Economic Inequality," Working Papers 9803, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    155. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    156. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    157. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Why do interest rates predict macro outcomes?: A unified theory of inflation, output, interest and policy," Research Paper 9717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    158. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, 1994. "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Macroeconomics 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994. [Downloadable!]
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    159. John Kambhu & Patricia C. Mosser, 2001. "The effect of interest rate options hedging on term-structure dynamics," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-70. [Downloadable!]
    160. Andrew Fung & Bryan Chapple, 1994. "The yield curve as an indicator of monetary conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, March. [Downloadable!]
    161. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    162. Fangxiong Gong & Roberto Mariano, 1997. "Stock Market Returns and Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market: The Case of Korea," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 147-169, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    163. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    164. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    165. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    166. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
    167. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    168. Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 3187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    169. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    170. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjö & Nilsson, Mattias, 2003. "The Euro and Corporate Valuations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 525, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    171. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    172. F. Barran, V. Coudert, B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    173. Hanns Hagen & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1996. "Interest rate-based forecasts of german economic growth: A note," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 763-773, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    174. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    175. Robert B. Kahn & Linda S. Kole, 1993. "Monetary transmission channels in major foreign industrial countries," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    176. John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    177. Ralf Becker & Denise Osborn, 2007. "Weighted smooth transition regressions," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0724, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    178. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
    179. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
    180. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0224, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    181. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    182. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    183. Chadha, J.S. & Holly, S., 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve: An assessment of the Fit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0640, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    184. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    185. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    186. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  15. Marcelle Arak & Arturo Estrella & Laurie Goodman & Andrew Silver, 1988. "Interest rate swaps: an alternative explanation," Research Paper 8811, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew H. Chen & Mohammed M. Chaudhury, 1996. "The Market Value and Dynamic Interest Rate Risk of Swaps," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-44, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    2. Anatoli Kuprianov, 1994. "The role of interest rate swaps in corporate finance," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 49-68. [Downloadable!]
    3. George W. Fenn & Mitch Post & Steven A. Sharpe, 1996. "Debt maturity and the use of interest rate derivatives by non-financial firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    4. Gautam Goswami & Milind Shrikhande, 1997. "Interest rate swaps and economic exposure," Working Paper 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]

  16. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1983. "Average Marginal Tax Rates U.S. Household Interest and Dividend Income 1954-80," NBER Working Papers 1201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Explained by GDP Growth and Consistent with Portfolio Insurance," Finance 0311004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2004. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0403004, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2004. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

Articles

  1. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  2. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    3. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    5. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]

  3. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Generalized canonical regression," Staff Reports 288, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    5. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Eva Ferreira & María Isabel Martínez & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200511, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    9. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has models’ forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    10. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    11. Luis Cat�o & G. A. Mackenzie, 2006. "Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 318-342, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    13. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    14. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Working Paper 0611, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Models’ Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440. [Downloadable!]
    20. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Li L. Ong & Srobona Mitra & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    22. ARANHA, Marcel Z. & MOURA, Marcelo L., 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_155, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    23. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    25. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    26. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]

  4. Arturo Estrella, 2004. "Bank Capital and Risk: Is Voluntary Disclosure Enough?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 145-160, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March. [Downloadable!]

  5. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P Tsomocos, . "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks' choice of loan rating system," Bank of England working papers 181, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Stolz, Stephanie & Wedow, Michael, 2005. "Banks' regulatory capital buffer and the business cycle: evidence for German savings and cooperative banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    4. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    6. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano, 2005. "Did the Basel Accord cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 05/38, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    8. Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-342, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Arturo Estrella, 2004. "Bank Capital and Risk: Is Voluntary Disclosure Enough?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 145-160, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Diemo Dietrich & Uwe Vollmer, 2004. "Why do banks hold capital in excess of regulatory requirements? A functional approach," Finance 0407006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    12. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    13. Bernd Hofmann, 2005. "Procyclicality: The Macroeconomic Impact of Risk-Based Capital Requirements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    15. Renee Adams & Hamid Mehran, 2003. "Is corporate governance different for bank holding companies?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 123-142. [Downloadable!]
    16. Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne , Alistair, 2006. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Research Discussion Papers 17/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    18. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "The balance sheet channel," Quantitative Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    19. Birgit Schmitz, 2007. "The impact of Basel I capital regulation on bank deposits and loans: Empirical evidence for Europe," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    20. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The Cyclical Behaviour of European Bank Capital Buffers," SIFR Research Report Series 56, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    21. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2007. "Economic and Regulatory Capital in Banking: What Is the Difference?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 87-117, September. [Downloadable!]
    22. Paraskevi Dimou & Colin Lawrence & Alistair Milne, 2005. "Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 135-161, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    23. Kilponen , Juha & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The lending channel under optimal choice of monetary policy," Research Discussion Papers 33/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]

  6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  7. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Mª Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability:The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/52, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. John C. Williams, 2004. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. O'Reilly,Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/04, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    7. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
    9. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," Working Papers - General Series 434, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
    11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    13. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    15. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    17. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    19. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006. "Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules," Working Papers 0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    20. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0631, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    22. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775. [Downloadable!]
    23. Sandrine Corvoisier & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation - how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

  8. Estrella, Arturo, 2003. "Critical Values And P Values Of Bessel Process Distributions: Computation And Application To Structural Break Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1128-1143, December. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    2. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]

  9. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    Cited by:

    1. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling - when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    4. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2007. "Dynamics of Sticky Information and Sticky Price Models in a New Keynesian DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 5269, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    5. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    6. Richard Dennis, 2007. "Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov 30. [Downloadable!]
    7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 400, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle and Indeterminacy," Macroeconomics 0507021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 059, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Matheron, J. & Poilly, C., 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," Documents de Travail 148, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    13. Guenter Coenen & Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/13, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Frank Smets, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    15. Marika Karanassou & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Philips Curve Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1349, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
    17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2004. "Estimating forward looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal instruments approach," Working Papers 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    19. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Seminar Papers 687, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J Snower, 2005. "Inflation Persistence Revisited," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Yunus Aksoy & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Volker Wieland & David Wilcox, 2005. "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/19, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Mark Crosby & Tim Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2006. "How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
    24. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    25. Richard Dennis, 2008. "The Frequency of Price Adjustment and New Keynesian Business Cycle Dynamics," NCER Working Paper Series 29, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Grégory Levieuge & Alexis Penot, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB: Why such an apparent difference in reactivity?," Working Papers 0804, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?," Macroeconomics 0505015, EconWPA, revised 15 Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. W A Razzak, 2001. "Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Carl E. Walsh, 2005. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 829-849, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    31. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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    33. Álvaro Aguiar & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2008. "Why Do Central Banks Push for Structural Reforms? The Case of a Reform in the Labor Market," FEP Working Papers 265, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
    34. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    35. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    36. Richard Dennis, 2004. "New Keynesian models and their fit to the data," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 9. [Downloadable!]
    37. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    38. Christian Ahlin & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Menu Costs and Markov Inflation: A Theoretical Revision with New Evidence," Working Papers 0610, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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    39. Takeshi Kimura & Takushi Kurozumi, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    41. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation and explicit tax distortions," Working Papers 01-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    42. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "The real effects of money growth in dynamic general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 412, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    43. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    44. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2005. "Derivation and Estimation of a Phillips Curve with Sticky Prices and Sticky Information," MPRA Paper 5162, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    45. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 49, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    46. James M. Nason & Takashi Kano, 2004. "Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    47. Carl Walsh, 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1023, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    48. Richard Mash, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Economics Series Working Papers 109, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    49. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
    50. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    51. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    52. Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Basic Calvo and P-Bar Models of Price Adjustment: A Comparison," Kiel Working Papers 1361, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    53. Leitemo , Kai & Söderström , Ulf, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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    54. Ahsan Ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik & Ghulam Saghir, 2007. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 395-404. [Downloadable!]
    55. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    56. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 068, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    57. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," NBER Working Papers 12515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    58. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    59. Peter Welz, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model - a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    60. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    61. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    62. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Vacancies, Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1362, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    63. Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    64. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    65. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    66. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    67. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September. [Downloadable!]
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    68. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 145-164. [Downloadable!]
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    69. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    70. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    71. André Kurmann, 2003. "Quantifying the Uncertainty about the Fit of a New Keynesian Pricing Model: Extended Version," Cahiers de recherche 0344, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
    72. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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    73. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0631, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    74. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    75. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178. [Downloadable!]
    76. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2007. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp194, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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    77. Jeff Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    78. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "Can a Calibrated New-Keynesian Model of Monetary Policy Fit the Facts?," Working Paper Series 140, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    79. Richard Mash, 2002. "Monetary Policy with an Endogenous Capital Stock when Inflation is Persistent," Economics Series Working Papers 108, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    80. Ricardo Nunes, 2005. "Learning the inflation target," Macroeconomics 0504033, EconWPA, revised 26 Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
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    81. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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    82. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic Modeling when Agents are Imperfectly Informed," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    83. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    84. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    85. Andrea Vaona, 2006. "Merging the Purchasing Power Parity and the Phillips Curve Literatures: Regional Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 33, Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche. [Downloadable!]
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    86. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, . "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Bank of England working papers 119, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    87. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
    88. Ulf Söderström, 2000. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 13, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    89. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a frequency domain approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    90. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 14163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    91. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    92. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs," Working Papers 2003-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    93. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  10. Arturo Estrella, 2002. "Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 243-255. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: opening remarks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
    2. Philip Strahan, 2008. "Liquidity Production in 21st Century Banking," NBER Working Papers 13798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Greg Hannsgen, 2004. "Borrowing Alone: The Theory and Policy Implications of the Commodification of Finance," Economics Working Paper Archive 401, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2002. "The New Economy and the Challenges for Macroeconomic Policy," NBER Working Papers 8935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Franklin Allen & James McAndrews & Philip Strahan, 2001. "E-Finance: An Introduction," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-36, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. William B. English, 2002. "Financial consolidation and monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 271-284. [Downloadable!]
    7. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Response of Venezuelan output to monetary policy, deficit spending, and currency depreciation: a VAR model," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
    9. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marqués, 2007. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," Working Paper Series 838, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Hsing, Y., 2004. "Responses of Argentine Output to Shocks to Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates: A VAR Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1). [Downloadable!]
    11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris & Worms, Andreas, 2006. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: evidence for Germany and the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    12. W. Erwin Diewert & Alice O. Nakamura, 2009. "Accounting for housing in a CPI," Working Papers 09-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Elena Loutskina & Philip E. Strahan, 2006. "Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Acceptance Rates," NBER Working Papers 11983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Berk, Jan Marc, 2001. "New economy, old central banks? Monetary transmission in a new economic environment," Serie Research Memoranda 0032, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
    15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  11. Estrella, Arturo, 2001. "Mixing and matching: Prospective financial sector mergers and market valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2367-2392, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. C.G. de vries, 2004. "The simple economics of bank fragility," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 755, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Jan Frederik Slijkerman & Dirk Schoenmaker & Casper de Vries, . "Risk Diversification by European Financial Conglomerates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-110/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    3. Nadine Gatzert & Hato Schmeiser & Stefan Schuckmann, 2008. "Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 241-258, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "Off-Balance-Sheet Activities and the Shadow Banking System: An Application of the Hausman Test with Higher Moments Instruments," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
    6. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhaeuser, Markus, 2006. "The Anatomy of Bank Diversification," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 1167, University of Munich, Munich School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    7. Narjess Boubakri & Georges Dionne & Thouraya Triki, 2006. "Consolidation and Value Creation in the Insurance Industry: the Role of Governance," Cahiers de recherche 0626, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  12. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/23, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Klaus Schaeck & Simon Wolfe, 2005. "Identifying "Problem Banks" in the German Co-operative and Savings Bank Sector: An Econometric Analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 44, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    3. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical Opacity In The U.S. Banking Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    5. Andrew Logan, . "The United Kingdom's small banks' crisis of the early 1990s: what were the leading indicators of failure?," Bank of England working papers 139, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    6. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2006. "Bank Failure: Evidence from the Colombia Financial Crisis," Working Papers 06-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    8. Huberto M. Ennis, 2004. "Some recent trends in commercial banking," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 41-61. [Downloadable!]
    9. Daley, J & Matthews, Kent & Whitfield, Keith, 2006. "Too-Big-To-Fail: Bank Failure and Banking Policy in Jamaica," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    10. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2004. "Rebalancing the three pillars of Basel II," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 7-21. [Downloadable!]
    11. Steven Pottier & David Sommer, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 101-116, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Süß, Philipp Johann, 2009. "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 10996, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    13. Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2003. "Rebalancing the 3 Pillars of Basel 2," IDEI Working Papers 224, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    14. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, . "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    15. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2001. "Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    18. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, . "Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s," Borradores de Economia 400, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    19. Birgit Schmitz, 2007. "The impact of Basel I capital regulation on bank deposits and loans: Empirical evidence for Europe," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    20. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
    21. Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60. [Downloadable!]
    22. Robert Bichsel & Jürg Blum, 2004. "The relationship between risk and capital in Swiss commercial banks: a panel study," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 591-597, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    23. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan., pages 47-63. [Downloadable!]

  13. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Ernst Baltensperger, 1998. "The Question of Bank Capital Regulation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 645-648, December. [Downloadable!]

  14. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 191-200. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Charles Rochet, 2004. "Rebalancing the three pillars of Basel II," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 7-21. [Downloadable!]
    2. Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2003. "Rebalancing the 3 Pillars of Basel 2," IDEI Working Papers 224, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    3. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, . "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    4. D.T. Llewellyn, 2000. "Some Lessons for Bank Regulation from Recent Crises," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 51, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    5. David T. Llewellyn, 2001. "A Regulatory Regime for Financial Stability," Working Papers 48, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    6. A.W.A. Boot & S. Dezelan & T.T. Milbourn, 2000. "Regulation and the Evolution of the Financial Services Industry," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 50, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

  15. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  16. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  17. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  18. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Yano, Takashi & Kosaka, Hiroyuki, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis on Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in EMU Countries," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa090, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    3. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    5. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 121-44, September. [Downloadable!]
    7. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
    9. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    10. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2002. "Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 314, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    11. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    12. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    14. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2005. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Working Papers 2001-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    15. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the eurozone," Banco de España Working Papers 0827, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    18. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    19. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    22. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51. [Downloadable!]
    23. Eva Ferreira & María Isabel Martínez & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200511, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    24. Jan Marc Berk & Peter A.G. Vanbergeijk, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 11, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    25. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    26. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    27. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
    28. Ulrich Fritsche, 2001. "Do Probit Models Help in Forecasting Turning Points in German Business Cycles?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 241, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-. [Downloadable!]
    30. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    31. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 305-326. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    33. María-Dolores, Ramon & Vázquez, Jesús & Londoño, Juan M., 2009. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," Annals of Computational Economics 4699, Murcia University, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    34. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    35. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation on Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    36. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    37. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    38. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 11792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    39. Jesús Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED\'S reaction function? ," DFAEII Working Papers 200402, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    40. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    41. Hanna Putkuri, 2004. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission: the role of national financial systems," Macroeconomics 0404037, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    42. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    43. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    44. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    45. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2000. "A money demand system for Euro area M3," Working Paper Series 39, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    46. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    47. Edward E. Leamer, 2001. "The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions," NBER Working Papers 8192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    48. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Asymmetry In The Link Between The Yield Spread And Industrial Production. Threshold Effects And Forecasting," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-41, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    49. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    50. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    51. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42. [Downloadable!]
    52. Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 238, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    53. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    54. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    55. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    56. Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Switching regimes in the term structure of interest rates furing US post-war," DFAEII Working Papers 200233, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    57. Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2006. "A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts," Research series 200603-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    58. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    59. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate
      ," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    60. Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation," DFAEII Working Papers 200307, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    61. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    62. Jörg Bibow, 2001. "Making EMU Work: some lessons from the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 233-259, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    63. Wilfling, Bernd, 2001. "The Convergence of International Interest Rates Prior to Monetary Union," Discussion Paper Series 26165, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    64. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    65. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    66. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    67. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    68. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    69. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area:," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
    70. R. Paap & Ph.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "Does the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Report 108, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    71. Michael Dueker, 1998. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: a Gibbs sampling approach to the bank prime rate," Working Papers 1998-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    72. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    73. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Banco de España Working Papers 0906, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    74. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    75. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    76. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    77. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    78. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    79. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjö & Nilsson, Mattias, 2003. "The Euro and Corporate Valuations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 525, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    80. Putkuri , Hanna, 2003. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission: the role of national financial systems," Research Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    81. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    82. Paola Donati & Francesco Donati, 2008. "Modelling and forecasting the yield curve under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    83. Chadha, J.S. & Holly, S., 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve: An assessment of the Fit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0640, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    84. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    85. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Anders Møller Christensen & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2005. "US Monetary Police 1988-2004: An Empirical Analysis," FRU Working Papers 2005/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    2. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 121-44, September. [Downloadable!]
    3. Selim Elekdag & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart," IMF Working Papers 09/178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    4. Charles Steindel, 1997. "Measuring economic activity and economic welfare: what are we missing?," Research Paper 9732, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    5. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    6. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101. [Downloadable!]
    9. Tobias Adrian & Michael J. Fleming, 2005. "What financing data reveal about dealer leverage," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    10. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 279, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    12. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana
      [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]      ," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    13. Glen Larsen & Bruce Resnick, 2008. "Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2008. "Giving flexibility to the Nelso-Siegel class of term structure models," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211322560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    15. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2004. "Investment Cycles," Macroeconomics 0405005, EconWPA, revised 05 May 2004. [Downloadable!]
    16. Ivan Paya & Kent Matthews, 2004. "Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 797-801, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    17. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2003. "Co-movement, capital and contracts: 'normal' cycles through creative destruction," Discussion Paper 62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    18. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    19. Elliott Middleton, 2001. "'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting," Quantitative Finance Papers nlin/0108012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2001. [Downloadable!]

  20. Arturo Estrella, 1995. "A prolegomenon to future capital requirements," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "The Future of Regulatory Capital: General Principles and Specific Proposals," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 599-616, December. [Downloadable!]
    2. Darryll Hendricks & Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Bank capital requirements for market risk: the internal models approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
    3. Arturo Estrella, 1998. "Formulas or supervision? Remarks on the future of regulatory capital," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 191-200. [Downloadable!]
    4. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    5. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
    6. Jürgen Von Hagen & Ingo Fender, 1998. "Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 493-532, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Mayes, David & Vesala, Jukka, 1998. "On the Problems of Home Country Control," Research Discussion Papers 20/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Franz R. Hahn, . "Macroprudential Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," WIFO Working Papers 154, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
    9. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Beverly J. Hirtle & Mark Levonian & Marc Saidenberg & Stefan Walter & David Wright, 2001. "Using credit risk models for regulatory capital: issues and options," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 19-36. [Downloadable!]

  21. Arturo Estrella & Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Soo Shin & Stefan Walter, 1994. "The price risk of options positions: measurement and capital requirements," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 44-75.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Powell & Veronica Balzarotti, 1997. "Capital Requirements for Latin American Banks in Relation to their Market Risks: The Relevance of the Basle 1996 Amendment to Latin America," RES Working Papers 4072, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    2. Andrew Powell & Veronica Balzarotti, 1997. "Requisitos de capital de los bancos latinoamericanos en relación con sus niveles de riesgo de mercado: importancia de la Enmienda de Basilea de 1996 para América Latina," RES Working Papers 4073, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    3. Beate Reszat, 1997. "Sources of increasing systemic risk in international financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 211-219, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  22. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  23. Arturo Estrella, 1988. "Consistent margin requirements: are they feasible?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 61-79.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Fortune, 2003. "Margin requirements across equity-related instruments: how level is the playing field?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 31-50. [Downloadable!]

Chapters

  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

Books

    Sorry, no citations of books recorded.
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