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Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

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  • Aslanidis, Nektarios
  • Christiansen, Charlotte

Abstract

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

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Paper provided by Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2072/152138.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/152138

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Keywords: Correlació (Estadística); Actius financers -- Preus; Cartera de valors -- Gestió; 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa;

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  1. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008. "Modeling Tick-by-Tick Realized Correlations," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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  8. Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2006. "Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects," Working Papers 2006-02, Swiss National Bank.
  9. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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  12. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Sign and Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2010-55, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  13. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
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Cited by:
  1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2011. "Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation," Working Papers 2072/151809, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

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