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Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

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  • Bo Becker
  • Victoria Ivashina

Abstract

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to demand or supply. We address this question by studying firms’ substitution between bank debt and non-bank debt (public bonds) using firm-level data. Any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds. Conditional on issuance of new debt, we interpret firm’s switching from loans to bonds as a contraction in bank credit supply. We find strong evidence of substitution from loans to bonds at times characterized by tight lending standards, high levels of non-performing loans and loan allowances, low bank share prices and tight monetary policy. The bank-to-bond substitution can only be measured for firms with access to bond markets. However, we show that this substitution behavior has strong predictive power for bank borrowing and investments by small, out-of-sample firms. We consider and reject several alternative explanations of our findings.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17392.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17392

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References

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  1. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
  2. Christopher W. Crowe & S. Mahdi Barakchian, 2010. "Monetary Policy Matters: New Evidence Based on a New Shock Measure," IMF Working Papers 10/230, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Galina Hale & Joao A. C. Santos, 2008. "Do banks price their informational monopoly?," Working Paper Series 2008-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Johnson, Shane A., 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Corporate Debt Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 47-69, March.
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  6. Hale, Galina & Santos, João A.C., 2008. "The decision to first enter the public bond market: The role of firm reputation, funding choices, and bank relationships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1928-1940, September.
  7. Chemmanur, Thomas J & Fulghieri, Paolo, 1994. "Reputation, Renegotiation, and the Choice between Bank Loans and Publicly Traded Debt," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 475-506.
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Cited by:
  1. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Dollar funding and the lending behavior of global banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Harald Uhlig & Fiorella De Fiore, 2012. "Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis," 2012 Meeting Papers 429, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Mark Gertler, 2012. "Comment on "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 215-223 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 159-214 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kahle, Kathleen M. & Stulz, Rene M., 2011. "Financial Policies, Investment, and the Financial Crisis: Impaired Credit Channel or Diminished Demand for Capital?," Working Paper Series 2011-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  6. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2010. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-065, Harvard Business School.
  7. Custódio, Cláudia & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laureano, Luís, 2013. "Why are US firms using more short-term debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 182-212.
  8. Francis, Johanna L. & Aykut, Dilek & Tereanu, Eugen, 2014. "The cost of private debt over the credit cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 146-181.
  9. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks' Cost of Funding, and Firms' Real Decisions: Lessons from Two Crises," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 824, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
  10. David Jacobs & Vanessa Rayner, 2012. "The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Montoriol-Garriga, Judit, 2013. "Firms as liquidity providers: Evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 272-291.
  12. Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Financial Policies and the Financial Crisis: How Important Was the Systemic Credit Contraction for Industrial Corporations?," NBER Working Papers 16310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks' Cost of Funding, and Firms' Decisions: Lessons from Two Crises," IZA Discussion Papers 7872, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Schedvin, E.L. von, 2012. "Essays on banking, corporate bankruptcy, and corporate finance," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5661159, Tilburg University.
  15. Norden, Lars & van Kampen, Stefan, 2013. "Corporate leverage and the collateral channel," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5062-5072.
  16. Pattani, Aashish & Vera, Giuseppe & Wackett , James, 2011. "Going public: UK companies’ use of capital markets," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(4), pages 319-330.
  17. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-09," Staff Reports 528, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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