Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Crowding-Out Effects of a Government-Owned Depository Institution: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Japan

Contents:

Author Info

  • Masami Imai

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Beginning in 2000, Japan’s government-owned postal saving system experienced a rapid outflow of funds as a large number of 10-year fixed-rate Postal Saving Certificates (PSCs) that had been purchased during the period of high interest rates in the early 1990s were maturing. This paper exploits this episode as a natural experiment to investigate the crowding-out effects of a government-owned depository institution on local economies. The panel data of 47 prefectures from 1995 to 2004 show that the prefectures where local funds were heavily invested in the postal saving system in the early 1990s tended to experience a larger shift of funds into private banks from the postal saving system in the early 2000s, suggesting that the exogenous maturing of PSCs was in part responsible for the observed shifts in the allocation of local funds. More importantly, the (instrumented) flow of local funds to private banks from the postal saving system has statistically robust and economically important positive effects on local output and on the number of small firms, but not on the number of large firms. These results provide empirical support for the view that a government-owned depository institution has crowding-out effects on local economies and, in particular, on small firms that rely on local banks in direct competition with government-owned depository institutions for local deposits.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://repec.wesleyan.edu/pdf/mimai/2008003rev0908_imai.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Wesleyan University, Department of Economics in its series Wesleyan Economics Working Papers with number 2008-003.

    as in new window
    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2008-003

    Note: Earlier version available at http://repec.wesleyan.edu/pdf/mimai/2008003_imai.pdf
    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: PAC 123, 238 Church Street, Middletown, CT 06459-0007
    Phone: (860)685-2340
    Fax: (860)685-2781
    Web page: http://www.wesleyan.edu/econ/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Postal Saving system; Japan; Crowding-Out;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Yoshiaki Ogura & Hirofumi Uchida, 2014. "Bank Consolidation and Soft Information Acquisition in Small Business Lending," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 173-200, April.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1992. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 92-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    4. William Kerr & Ramana Nanda, 2006. "Democratizing Entry: Banking Deregulations, Financing Constraints, and Entrepreneurship," Harvard Business School Working Papers 07-033, Harvard Business School, revised Oct 2008.
    5. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
    6. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "Does Distance Still Matter? The Information Revolution in Small Business Lending," NBER Working Papers 7685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kashyap, Anil K & Lamont, Owen A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-92, August.
    8. Murillo Campello, 2002. "Internal Capital Markets in Financial Conglomerates: Evidence from Small Bank Responses to Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2773-2805, December.
    9. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
    10. Becker, Bo, 2007. "Geographical segmentation of US capital markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 151-178, July.
    11. Steven A. Sharpe, 1989. "Asymmetric information, bank lending, and implicit contracts: a stylized model of customer relationships," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. O'Hara, Maureen & Easley, David, 1979. "The Postal Savings System in the Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 741-753, September.
    13. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    14. John C. Driscoll, 2003. "Does bank lending affect output? evidence from the U.S. states," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Jie Gan, 2007. "The Real Effects of Asset Market Bubbles: Loan- and Firm-Level Evidence of a Lending Channel," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1941-1973, November.
    16. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
    17. Atif Mian, 2006. "Distance Constraints: The Limits of Foreign Lending in Poor Economies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1465-1505, 06.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Imai, Masami, 2006. "Market discipline and deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3433-3452, December.
    20. Huang, Rocco, 2007. "Evaluating the real effect of bank branching deregulation: comparing contiguous counties across U.S. state borders," Working Paper Series 0788, European Central Bank.
    21. Benfratello, Luigi & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Banks and Innovation: Microeconometric Evidence on Italian Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 2032, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    22. Flannery, Mark J, 1994. "Debt Maturity and the Deadweight Cost of Leverage: Optimally Financing Banking Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 320-31, March.
    23. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1996. "The international transmission of financial shocks: the case of Japan," Working Papers 96-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    24. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    25. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. " The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    26. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-400, September.
    27. Gibson, Michael S, 1995. "Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 281-308, July.
    28. Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Maksimovic, V., 2004. "Bank competition and access to finance," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125507, Tilburg University.
    29. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2004. "Bank competition and access to finance: international evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 627-654.
    31. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    32. Nicola Cetorelli & Philip Strahan, 2004. "Finance as a barrier to entry: bank competition and industry structure in local U.S. markets," Working Paper Series WP-04-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    33. Lamont Black & Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2007. "Bank core deposits and the mitigation of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Sandra E. Black & Philip E. Strahan, 2002. "Entrepreneurship and Bank Credit Availability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2807-2833, December.
    35. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584, November.
    37. Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2002. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Working Papers 9385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2003. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 37-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Bent E. Sørensen & Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard, 2005. "U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses,and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income," Working Papers 2005-02, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    39. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2002. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Nicolas L. Jacquet & Serene Tan, 2007. "On the Segmentation of Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 639-664, 08.
    41. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
    42. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2001. "New evidence on the lending channel," Staff Reports 136, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    43. Masami Imai, 2006. "Market Discipline and Deposit Insurance Reform in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-007, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    44. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-81, July.
    45. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    46. Charles J. Hadlock & Christopher M. James, 2002. "Do Banks Provide Financial Slack?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1383-1419, 06.
    47. Elena Loutskina & Philip E. Strahan, 2006. "Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Acceptance Rates," NBER Working Papers 11983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kuttner, Kenneth N & Palia, Darius N, 2002. "Are There Bank Effects in Borrowers' Costs of Funds? Evidence from a Matched Sample of Borrowers and Banks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 559-81, October.
    49. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    50. Wako Watanabe, 2007. "Prudential Regulation and the "Credit Crunch": Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 639-665, 03.
    51. Houston, Joel & James, Christopher & Marcus, David, 1997. "Capital market frictions and the role of internal capital markets in banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 135-164, November.
    52. Charles W. Calomiris & R. Glenn Hubbard & James H. Stock, 1986. "The Farm Debt Crisis and Public Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 441-486.
    53. Mark E Schaffer, 2005. "XTIVREG2: Stata module to perform extended IV/2SLS, GMM and AC/HAC, LIML and k-class regression for panel data models," Statistical Software Components S456501, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    54. Kazuo Ogawa, 2007. "Why Commercial Banks Held Excess Reserves: The Japanese Experience of the Late 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 241-257, 02.
    55. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-41, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2008-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manolis Kaparakis).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.