IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v2(623)y2020i2(623)p109-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics

Author

Listed:
  • Todd J. BARRY

    (Western Connecticut State University, USA)

Abstract

Can bond yield curves, the Anxious Index, and/or institutional factors indicate if investors expect too much risk in the short-term, and therefore recessions? While hypothesizing that they can, yield curves may also be affected by shocks, inflation, debt, and maturity preferences, controlled for using both short-term, and wide-spanning, post-World War II regressions, in various countries. While these theories are found valid, the three main hypotheses are most presaging, and the effect of debt stands out, though dependent on savings. Finally, the article analyzes risk in financial institutions, finding that diversification of society can buffer risky, volatile finance institutions, and vice-versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:2(623):y:2020:i:2(623):p:109-130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1456.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1456&rid=139
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-1059, November.
    4. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    5. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    6. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    7. Bower, Dorothy H & Bower, Richard S & Logue, Dennis E, 1984. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Utility Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1054, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    3. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    4. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    5. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    6. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    7. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    8. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    12. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
    13. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    15. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    16. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    17. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    18. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    19. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:2(623):y:2020:i:2(623):p:109-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.