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Menu Costs and Markov Inflation: A Theoretical Revision with New Evidence

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Author Info
Christian Ahlin () (Department of Economics Vanderbilt University)
Mototsugu Shintani () (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

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Abstract

We revisit a foundational theoretical paper in the menu cost literature, Sheshinski and Weiss (1983), one of the few to treat stochastic inflation with persistent deviations from trend. In contrast to the original finding, we find that optimal pricing in this environment entails using different (s,S) bands in high-inflation and low-inflation states of the world. The low-inflation band is strictly contained within the high-inflation band. This revised solution has very different implications from the original one. Firms are generally risk-loving, not risk-averse, with respect to inflation. An increase in the variance of inflation increases price dispersion when inflation is high and decreases price dispersion when inflation is low. On an aggregate level, this optimal pricing would lead to bunching of prices and non-neutrality of money in the setting of Caplin and Spulber (1987). To test the main finding, we construct an establishment-level dataset from the months surrounding Mexico's Tequila crisis, in 1995. In the high-inflation state, price increases are larger and establishments allow their prices to vary more widely around their respective long-run mean relative prices. Cross-establishment price dispersion is lower, but this result seems due to decreased establishment heterogeneity rather than narrower (s,S) bands. Overall, the evidence suggests that establishments employ wider (s,S) bands in the high-inflation state.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University in its series Working Papers with number 0610.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0610

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Keywords: (s S) policy neutrality of money optimal pricing regime switching

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 11043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Leif Danziger, 1999. "A Dynamic Economy with Costly Price Adjustments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 878-901, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
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  4. Mariano Tommasi, 1992. "Inflation and Relative Prices Evidence from Argentina," UCLA Economics Working Papers 661, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Lucas & Mike Golosov, 2004. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," 2004 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1991. "State-Dependent Pricing and the Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 683-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Marco Antonio Cesar Bonomo & Heitor Vieira de Almeida Neto, 1999. "Optimal State-Dependent Rules, Credibility, and Inflation Inertia," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 349, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Caplin, Andrew S & Spulber, Daniel F, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-25, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-34, November.
  10. Etienne Gagnon, 2006. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," 2006 Meeting Papers 300, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lach, Saul & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregated Price Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 349-89, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing And The General Equilibrium Dynamics Of Money And Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Aggregation and Optimization with State-Dependent Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1595, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  16. Sheshinski, Eytan & Weiss, Yoram, 1983. "Optimum Pricing Policy under Stochastic Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(3), pages 513-29, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Burstein, Ariel T., 2006. "Inflation and output dynamics with state-dependent pricing decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1235-1257, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sheshinski, Eytan & Weiss, Yoram, 1977. "Inflation and Costs of Price Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 287-303, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Benjamin Eden, 2001. "Inflation and Price Adjustment: An Analysis of Microdata," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 607-636, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005. "Is Firm Pricing State or Time-Dependent? Evidence from US Manufacturing," Macroeconomics 0511005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2008. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2008. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: the role of sticky information," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 07, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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