Real-time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty
AbstractThis paper studies optimal real-time monetary policy when the central bank takes the exogenous volatility of the output gap and inflation as proxy of the undistinguishable uncertainty on the exogenous disturbances and the parameters of its model. The paper shows that when the exogenous volatility surrounding a specific state variable increases, the optimal policy response to that variable should increase too, while the optimal response to the remaining state variables should attenuate or be unaffected. In this way the central bank moves preemptively to reduce the risk of large deviations of the economy from the steady state that would deteriorate the distribution forecasts of the output gap and inflation. When an empirical test is carried out on the US economy the model predictions tend to be consistent with the data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2010015.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision: Jun 2010
Multiplicative uncertainty; Markov jump linear quadratic systems; optimal monetary policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Flamini Alessandro & Milas Costas, 2011. "Real-Time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-43, March.
- Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2009. "Real-time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 38_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-07-10 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-ORE-2010-07-10 (Operations Research)
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- Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 381-408.
- Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Economic Stability and the Choice of the Target Inflation Index," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-37, April.
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