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Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM

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Author Info
Adrian, Tobias
Franzoni, Francesco

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Abstract

We amend the conditional CAPM to allow for unobservable long-run changes in risk factor loadings. In this environment, investors rationally "learn" the long-run level of factor loadings from the observation of realized returns. As a consequence of this assumption, we model conditional betas using the Kalman filter. Because of its focus on low-frequency variation in betas, our approach circumvents recent criticisms of the conditional CAPM. When tested on portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market, our learning-augmented conditional CAPM passes the specification tests.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 537-556
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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:537-556

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Keywords: Beta CAPM Kalman filter Anomalies Value premium;

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
  2. Zhi Da & Re-Jin Guo & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "CAPM for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Interpreting the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1595, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Chris Brooks & Xiafei Li & Joelle Miffre, 2007. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Unsystematic Risk," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2007-03, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Ang & Joseph chen, 2005. "CAPM Over the Long Run: 1926-2001," NBER Working Papers 11903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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