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Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM

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  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Franzoni, Francesco

Abstract

We amend the conditional CAPM to allow for unobservable long-run changes in risk factor loadings. In this environment, investors rationally "learn" the long-run level of factor loadings from the observation of realized returns. As a consequence of this assumption, we model conditional betas using the Kalman filter. Because of its focus on low-frequency variation in betas, our approach circumvents recent criticisms of the conditional CAPM. When tested on portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market, our learning-augmented conditional CAPM passes the specification tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 537-556

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:537-556

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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Keywords: Beta CAPM Kalman filter Anomalies Value premium;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Santos, André A.P. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2014. "Dynamic factor multivariate GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 606-617.
  2. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join, 2013. "Systematic and multifactor risk models revisited," Post-Print hal-00920175, HAL.
  3. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  4. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2008. "Dynamic betas for Canadian sector portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1110-1122, December.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2010. "Time-Varying Beta: A Boundedly Rational Equilibrium Approach," Research Paper Series 275, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Arnaud Mehl, 2013. "Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Todd, Prono, 2009. "Market Proxies, Correlation, and Relative Mean-Variance Efficiency: Still Living with the Roll Critique," MPRA Paper 20031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen, 2005. "CAPM Over the Long Run: 1926-2001," NBER Working Papers 11903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Fernando D. Chague, 2013. "Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2013_04, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  10. Michel Fliess & C\'edric Join, 2013. "Systematic and multifactor risk models revisited," Papers 1312.5271, arXiv.org.
  11. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
  12. Lu, Jin-Ray & Lee, Pei-Hsuan & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2011. "Estimation of oil firm's systematic risk via composite time-varying models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(11), pages 2389-2399.
  13. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
  14. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
  15. Bruno Giovannetti & Mauro Rodrigues, Eduardo Ros, 2014. "Investment Grade, Asset Prices and Changes in the Source of Systematic Risk," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  16. Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Multifactor Loadings and Pricing Errors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2453-2463.
  17. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.

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