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Market Procyclicality and Systemic Risk

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  • Tasca, Paolo
  • Battiston, Stefano

Abstract

We model the systemic risk associated with the so-called balance-sheet amplification mechanism in a system of banks with interlocked balance sheets and with positions in real-economy-related assets. Our modeling framework integrates a stochastic price dynamics with an active balance-sheet management aimed to maintain the Value-at-Risk at a target level. We find that a strong compliance with capital requirements, usually alleged to be procyclical, does not increase systemic risk unless the asset market is illiquid. Conversely, when the asset market is illiquid, even a weak compliance with capital requirements increases significantly systemic risk. Our findings have implications in terms of possible macro-prudential policies to mitigate systemic risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45156.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision: Mar 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45156

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Keywords: Systemic risk; Procyclicality; Leverage; Market liquidity; Network models;

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  1. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
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  5. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
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  20. Tasca, Paolo & Battiston, Stefano, 2013. "Market Procyclicality and Systemic Risk," MPRA Paper 45156, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2013.
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Cited by:
  1. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, . "Market Procyclicality and Systemic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-012, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  2. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2013. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-045 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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