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Do market-based indicators anticipate rating agencies? Evidence for international banks

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Author Info
Antonio Di Cesare () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the ability of credit default swap spreads, bond spreads and stock prices to anticipate the decisions of the main rating agencies, for the largest international banks. Conditional on negative rating events, all the three indicators show signi¯cant abnormal changes before both announcements of review and actual credit rating changes, but rating actions still seem to convey new information to the market. Results for positive rating events are less clear-cut with the market indicators generally showing abnormal behaviors only in conjunction with the events. As for the predictive power of the ¯nancial indicators examined, the CDS market is particularly useful for negative events and stock prices for positive events. However, all indicators also send many false signals and are to be interpreted with care.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 593.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_593_06

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Related research
Keywords: Credit derivatives; credit default swaps; option-adjusted spreads; credit ratingss;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, 2000. "The Information Value of Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2879-2902, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fernando Gonzalez & François Haas & Ronald Johannes & Mattias Persson & Liliana Toledo & Roberto Violi & Martin Wieland & Carmen Zins, 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings - a literature review," Occasional Paper Series 16, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer & Kevin Cole, 1997. "Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk," Research Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Goh, Jeremy C. & Ederington, Louis H., 1999. "Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 101-112. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Grier, Paul & Katz, Steven, 1976. "The Differential Effects of Bond Rating Changes among Industrial and Public Utility Bonds by Maturity," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 226-39, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sarai Criado & Adrian van Rixtel, 2008. "Structured finance and the financial turmoil of 2007-2008: and introductory overview," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0808, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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