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Do Market-based Indicators Anticipate Rating Agencies? Evidence for International Banks

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  • Antonio Cesare

Abstract

This paper analyses the ability of credit default swap (CDS) spreads, bond spreads and stock prices to anticipate the decisions of the main rating agencies, regarding the largest international banks. Conditional on negative rating events, all the three indicators show significant abnormal changes before both announcements of review and actual credit rating changes, but rating actions still seem to convey new information to the market. Results for positive rating events are less clear-cut with the market indicators generally showing abnormal behaviours only in conjunction with the events. As for the predictive power of the financial indicators examined, the CDS market is particularly useful for negative events and stock prices for positive events. However, all indicators also send many false signals and are to be interpreted with care. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2006

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  • Antonio Cesare, 2006. "Do Market-based Indicators Anticipate Rating Agencies? Evidence for International Banks," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 121-150, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:35:y:2006:i:1:p:121-150
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Christian Gokus, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets before and during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1107, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Bruder, Benjamin & Hereil, Pierre & Roncalli, Thierry, 2011. "Managing sovereign credit risk in bond portfolios," MPRA Paper 36673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hasan, Iftekhar & Siddique, Akhtar & Sun, Xian, 2015. "Monitoring the “invisible” hand of market discipline: Capital adequacy revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 475-492.
    4. Grothe, Magdalena, 2013. "Market pricing of credit rating signals," Working Paper Series 1623, European Central Bank.
    5. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    6. Imbierowicz, Björn & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2013. "Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 23-43.
    7. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    8. Sarai Criado & Adrian van Rixtel, 2008. "Structured finance and the financial turmoil of 2007-2008: and introductory overview," Occasional Papers 0808, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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