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Do market-based indicators anticipate rating agencies? Evidence for international banks

  • Antonio Di Cesare

    ()

    (Banca d'Italia)

This paper analyzes the ability of credit default swap spreads, bond spreads and stock prices to anticipate the decisions of the main rating agencies, for the largest international banks. Conditional on negative rating events, all the three indicators show signi�cant abnormal changes before both announcements of review and actual credit rating changes, but rating actions still seem to convey new information to the market. Results for positive rating events are less clear-cut with the market indicators generally showing abnormal behaviors only in conjunction with the events. As for the predictive power of the �nancial indicators examined, the CDS market is particularly useful for negative events and stock prices for positive events. However, all indicators also send many false signals and are to be interpreted with care.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2006/2006-0593/tema_593.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 593.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_593_06
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  1. Goh, Jeremy C. & Ederington, Louis H., 1999. "Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 101-112.
  2. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
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  7. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  8. Griffin, Paul A & Sanvicente, Antonio Z, 1982. " Common Stock Returns and Rating Changes: A Methodological Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 103-19, March.
  9. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
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  11. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
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  15. Grier, Paul & Katz, Steven, 1976. "The Differential Effects of Bond Rating Changes among Industrial and Public Utility Bonds by Maturity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 226-39, April.
  16. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March.
  18. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
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