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On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information

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  • Ricardo Nunes

Abstract

We estimate and compare two models in which households periodically update their expectations. The first model assumes that households update their expectations towards survey measures. In the second model, households update their expectations towards rational expectations (RE). While the literature has used these specifications indistinguishably, we argue that there are important differences. The two models imply different updating probabilities, and the data seem to prefer the second one. We then analyse the properties of both models in terms of mean expectations, median expectations, and a measure of disagreement among households. The model with periodical updates towards RE also seems to fit the data better along these dimensions. Copyright Published 2009. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 643-657

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:5:p:643-657

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Cited by:
  1. Easaw Joshy & Golinelli Roberto, 2010. "Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, November.
  2. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, 09.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Carrera, César, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity using Firms’ Survey Data," Working Papers 2012-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics:the role of past, present and forward looking information," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6g0gsihsjmn5snc9pb0hlas97 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  8. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-information General Equilibrium Model por Policy Analysis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 8, pages 227-283 Central Bank of Chile.

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