A factor model of term structure slopes in Eurocurrency markets
AbstractRecent empirical work has documented the existence of specific information in the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activity. A good forecasting model of term structure slopes could therefore be helpful to anticipate changes in economic activity with an even longer anticipation. Firstly, it is analysed whether a good forecasting model can be found for term structure slopes in different currencies. After that, a factor model is constructed of term structure slopes, and the quality of slope forecasts obtained from factor models are compared to those obtained from univariate models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0224, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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