Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Financial instability and ECB monetary policy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Claudiu Albulescu

    ()
    (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)

  • Daniel Goyeau

    ()
    (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)

  • Dominique Pépin

    ()
    (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)

Abstract

This paper proposes an assessment of the monetary policy performed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and, more specifically this paper investigates to what extent the ECB monetary policy decisions were guided by financial instability signals. Our assessment is achieved by estimating a Taylor's rule, augmented by financial instability aggregate indicators. This estimate enables us, on the one hand, to compare the fitted model predictions against the observed interest rate and, on the other hand, to decompose the setup of the key rate based on these different determinants. Using a sample of data related to the Euro area, we show that financial and banking instability impact on the key interest rate setup. Consideration of instability indicators brings forward a clear improvement of the Taylor's rule, mainly for the second period of the sample. This is because, at the beginning of the ECB, instability counted for one third of the explanation of the interest rate rule, and over the recent period (starting with the last quarter of 2005, up to 2009), for more than 54%.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/94/37/53/PDF/EB-13-V33-I1-P38.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00943753.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Economics Bulletin, 2013, 33, 1, 388-400
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00943753

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00943753
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: monetary policy; ECB; Taylor's rule; financial instability;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  4. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 2000. "The Performance Of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 203, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-72, April.
  7. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
  9. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
  10. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006. "Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules," Working Papers 0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  11. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
  12. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Martin Cihák & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Driffill, John & Rotondi, Zeno & Savona, Paolo & Zazzara, Cristiano, 2006. "Monetary policy and financial stability: What role for the futures market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-112, April.
  15. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  16. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
  17. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  18. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  19. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfa Li, 2008. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter For Monetary Policy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 643-659, October.
  21. Adam Gersl & Jaroslav Hermanek, 2007. "Financial Stability Indicators: Advantages and Disadvantages of their Use in the Assessment of Financial System Stability," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2006, chapter 0, pages 69-79 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00943753. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.