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What does a financial system say about future economic growth?

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Author Info
Grabowski, Szymon
Abstract

In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future economic growth from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast future economic growth, but that data about the financial system can be used for this purpose as well. The research is conducted for the Polish emerging economy on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that, based purely on the data from the financial system, it is possible to construct reasonable measures that can, even for an emerging economy, effectively forecast future real economic activity. The outcomes are proved by two various econometric methods, namely, by a time series analysis and by a probit model. All presented models are tested in-sample and out-of-sample.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11560/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12834/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11560.

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Date of creation: 12 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11560

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Related research
Keywords: CCAPM; economic growth; financial markets; term spreads; expectations; forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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    Other versions:
  4. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randy, 2002. "Financial crises, financial dependence, and industry growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2855, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan Ignacio Pena & Rosa Rodriguez, 2006. "On The Economic Link Between Asset Prices And Real Activity," Business Economics Working Papers wb063209, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Cole, Rebel & Moshirian, Fari & Wu, Qionbing, 2007. "Bank stock returns and economic growth," MPRA Paper 4714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  9. James Orr & Robert Rich & Rae Rosen, 2001. "Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 73-94. [Downloadable!]
  10. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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