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Bank stock returns and economic growth

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  • Cole, Rebel
  • Moshirian, Fari
  • Wu, Qionbing

Abstract

Previous research has established (i) that a country’s financial sector influence future economic growth and (ii) that stock market index returns affect future economic growth. We extend and tie together these two strands of the growth literature by analyzing the relationship between banking industry stock returns and future economic growth. Using dynamic panel techniques to analyze panel data from 18 developed and 18 emerging markets, we find a positive and significant relationship between bank stock returns and future GDP growth that is independent of the previously documented relationship between market index returns and economic growth. We also find that much of the informational content of bank stock returns is captured by country-specific and institutional characteristics, such as bank-accounting-disclosure standards, banking crises, enforcement of insider trading law and government ownership of banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29188.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Banking and Finance 32.6(2008): pp. 995-1007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29188

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Keywords: Banks; Economic Growth; Emerging Markets; Financial Development;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pais, Amelia & Stork, Philip A., 2011. "Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 681-697, March.
  2. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
  3. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, J., 2014. "Impact of off-balance sheet banking on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from South Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 195-216.
  4. Chernykh, Lucy & Cole, Rebel A., 2011. "Does deposit insurance improve financial intermediation? Evidence from the Russian experiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 388-402, February.
  5. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kendall, Jake, 2012. "Local financial development and growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1548-1562.
  7. Cole, Rebel & Moshirian, Fari & Wu, Qionbing, 2007. "Bank stock returns and economic growth," MPRA Paper 29188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2010. "Multi-country event-study methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3078-3090, December.
  9. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2013. "Central bank financial strength and inflation: Is there a robust link?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 399-414.
  10. M Mafizur Rahman & M Salahuddin, 2010. "The determinants of economic growth in Pakistan: Does stock market development play a major role?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(2), pages 69-86, September.
  11. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
  12. Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
  13. Uwe Hassler & Antonio Rubia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Persistence in the Banking Industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory," Working Papers w201406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  14. Viale, Ariel M. & Kolari, James W. & Fraser, Donald R., 2009. "Common risk factors in bank stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 464-472, March.
  15. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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