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Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

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  • James Orr
  • Robert Rich
  • Rae Rosen

Abstract

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes by estimating the probability of an upcoming cyclical change in state economic activity within the next nine months.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 73-94

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2001:i:mar:p:73-94:n:v.7no.1

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Related research

Keywords: Economic indicators ; New York (State) ; New Jersey ; Index numbers (Economics) ; Economic conditions - United States ; Federal Reserve District; 2nd;

References

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  1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  2. James Orr & Rae D. Rosen, 1997. "The New York - New Jersey job recovery," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Oct).
  3. Theodore M. Crone, 1994. "New indexes track the state of the states," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 19-31.
  4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Argia M. Sbordone, 1997. "Sources of New York employment fluctuations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb, pages 21-35.
  5. Theodore M. Crone & Kevin J. Babyak, 1996. "Looking ahead: leading indexes for Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.
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Cited by:
  1. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jason Bram & Andrew Haughwout & James Orr & Robert Rich & Rae Rosen, 2004. "The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York," Staff Reports 188, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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