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An Error Correction Factor Model of Term Structure Slopes in International Swaps Markets

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Abstract

The first two principal components in the vector of term structure slopes from IRS markets in eight major currencies can be approximately identified as the slopes for the US dollar and Deutsche mark. Each of the eight slopes considered is cointegrated with these two factors. The implied Error Correction models can be very fruitful for short and medium term slope forecasting for the eight currencies. This scheme achieves a drastic reduction of dimensionality, since the eight slopes can be predicted using just univariate forecasts for the two factors. Adding more factors to the model does not lead to a significant improvement in forecasting performance, while forecasts obtained using just one factor are not as good as those from two-factor Error Correction models.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0222.

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Length: pages 19
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0222

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Keywords: Factor models; Term structure of interest rates; Principal components; Swap markets; IRS.;

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
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  3. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0224, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  4. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Krylova, Elizaveta & Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 0530, European Central Bank.
  2. Mónica Fuentes & Sergio Godoy, 2005. "Sovereign Spread in Emerging Markets: A Principal Component Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 333, Central Bank of Chile.

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