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Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation

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Author Info
Ellis W Tallman (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Naveen Chandra (Reserve Bank of Australia)

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Abstract

This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve significantly the forecasting accuracy of output and inflation in a simple vector autoregression framework. The results display only one notable improvement to the forecasts with the addition of perfect information on the financial aggregates - future information on credit growth helps improve the prediction accuracy of real output growth. The improvement is most noticeable during the early 1990s recession. Second, we test whether the financial aggregates are important explanators within single-equation models that are more rigorously fitted to the data. We find only one instance in which an aggregate helps explain the variation in either real output growth or inflation - that is, the growth in credit helps explain the growth in real output in a particular specification of the output model. This finding, though, is sensitive to the choice of foreign output proxy. In sum, we conclude that while credit may have some useful information in times of financial restructuring it is unlikely that there is information in financial aggregates that is exploitable systematically for predicting either real output growth or inflation.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9704.

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Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9704

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Related research
Keywords: financial aggregates conditioning forecasts prediction

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ellis W Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996. "The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9606, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9702, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H, 1992. "Monetary Aggregates as Monetary Targets: A Statistical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 141-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84. [Downloadable!]
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