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The Lags of Monetary Policy

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  • DAVID GRUEN
  • JOHN ROMALIS
  • NAVEEN CHANDRA

Abstract

The length of the transmission lags from monetary pblicy to output has been the subject of much research over the years, but there are serious problems in isolating the lags with any precision. This paper uses a simple model of Australian output to estimate the length of the lags, and then examines how attempts to grapple with the estimation problems might change the results. We estimate that output growth falls by about one‐third of one per cent in both the first and second years after a one percentage point rise in the short‐term real interest rate, and by about one‐sixth of one per cent in the third year. This implies an average lag of about five or six quarters in monetary policy's impact on output growth. Each of these estimates is, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications for policy of these relatively long and uncertain lags. Finally, we find no evidence that the average lag from monetary policy to output growth has become any shorter in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1999. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(3), pages 280-294, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:75:y:1999:i:3:p:280-294
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1999.tb02456.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Marszałek, 2006. "Trudności koordynacji polityki pieniężnej i polityki fiskalnej we współczesnej gospodarce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 57-75.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    3. Naveen Chandra & Ellis W. Tallman, 1997. "Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Gordon de Brouwer, 1999. "Deregulation and Open Capital Markets: The Australian Experience Before Wallis," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 51-68.
    6. Bian, Zilin & Zuo, Fan & Gao, Jingqin & Chen, Yanyan & Pavuluri Venkata, Sai Sarath Chandra & Duran Bernardes, Suzana & Ozbay, Kaan & Ban, Xuegang (Jeff) & Wang, Jingxing, 2021. "Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 269-283.
    7. Ha, Yuong, 1999. "Uncertainty about Length of the Monetary Policy Transmission Lag: Implications for Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 94, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. West, L.k. & Agbola, W.F., 2005. "Causality Links Between Asset Prices And Cash Rate In Australia," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 69-86.
    9. By Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Korea: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 1-5.
    10. Sunday Osahon Igbinedion & Frank Iyekoretin Ogbeide, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization: Further Evidence from Nigeria," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 14(2), pages 159-174.
    11. Francisco G. Dakila, Jr. & Ma. Digna G. Paraso, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanism in the Philippines : the interest rate channel," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 55-80, June.
    12. Dmytro Krukovets & Olesia Verchenko, 2019. "Short-Run Forecasting of Core Inflation in Ukraine: a Combined ARMA Approach," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 248, pages 11-20.
    13. Juniper, James & Nadolny, Andrew & Pantelopoulos, George & Watts, Martin, 2021. "Orthodox macroeconomic textbooks: A critical evaluation using institutional practice as a benchmark," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Jakub Fischer & Hana Lipovská & Daniel Němec, 2016. "Implementační zpoždění diskreční fiskální politiky [Implementation Lag of Discretionary Fiscal Policy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 245-263.
    15. Klein, Aaron, 2019. "Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation into Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 1(4), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Paul Conway, 1998. "Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: An SVAR study," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-186.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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