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Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle

Author

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  • Bian, Zilin
  • Zuo, Fan
  • Gao, Jingqin
  • Chen, Yanyan
  • Pavuluri Venkata, Sai Sarath Chandra
  • Duran Bernardes, Suzana
  • Ozbay, Kaan
  • Ban, Xuegang (Jeff)
  • Wang, Jingxing

Abstract

The unprecedented challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic demand timely action. However, due to the complex nature of policy making, a lag may exist between the time a problem is recognized and the time a policy has its impact on a system. To understand this lag and to expedite decision making, this study proposes a change point detection framework using likelihood ratio, regression structure and a Bayesian change point detection method. The objective is to quantify the time lag effect reflected in transportation systems when authorities take action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using travel patterns as an indicator of policy effectiveness, the length of policy lag and magnitude of policy impacts on the road system, mass transit, and micromobility are investigated through the case studies of New York City (NYC), and Seattle—two U.S. cities significantly affected by COVID-19. The quantitative findings show that the National declaration of emergency had no policy lag while stay-at-home and reopening policies had a lead effect on mobility. The magnitude of impact largely depended on the land use and sociodemographic characteristics of the area, as well as the type of transportation system.

Suggested Citation

  • Bian, Zilin & Zuo, Fan & Gao, Jingqin & Chen, Yanyan & Pavuluri Venkata, Sai Sarath Chandra & Duran Bernardes, Suzana & Ozbay, Kaan & Ban, Xuegang (Jeff) & Wang, Jingxing, 2021. "Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 269-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:145:y:2021:i:c:p:269-283
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.01.019
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    3. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.
    4. Maria Cieśla & Sandra Kuśnierz & Oliwia Modrzik & Sonia Niedośpiał & Patrycja Sosna, 2021. "Scenarios for the Development of Polish Passenger Transport Services in Pandemic Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Chan, Ho-Yin & Chen, Anthony & Ma, Wei & Sze, Nang-Ngai & Liu, Xintao, 2021. "COVID-19, community response, public policy, and travel patterns: A tale of Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-184.
    6. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Spatiotemporal variation of the worldwide air transportation network induced by COVID-19 pandemic in 2020," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 168-184.
    7. Soheil Sohrabi & Fang Shu & Anika Gupta & Morteza Hossein Sabbaghian & Amirarsalan Mehrara Molan & Soheil Sajjadi, 2023. "Health Impacts of COVID-19 through the Changes in Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Nigro, Marialisa & Castiglione, Marisdea & Maria Colasanti, Fabio & De Vincentis, Rosita & Valenti, Gaetano & Liberto, Carlo & Comi, Antonio, 2022. "Exploiting floating car data to derive the shifting potential to electric micromobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 78-93.
    9. Lei, Yiyuan & Ozbay, Kaan, 2021. "A robust analysis of the impacts of the stay-at-home policy on taxi and Citi Bike usage: A case study of Manhattan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 487-498.
    10. Zhang, Junyi & Zhang, Runsen & Ding, Hongxiang & Li, Shuangjin & Liu, Rui & Ma, Shuang & Zhai, Baoxin & Kashima, Saori & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2021. "Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 37-57.

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