Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products
AbstractThis paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods determined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China–Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China's export competitiveness was clearly positive. The short-term impact of the EU's CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany's exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China's agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany's exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Growth causes of agri-food trade; The CMS model; The EU's CAP reform; China's accession to WTO; Financial crisis;
Other versions of this item:
- Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2010. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products," Working Papers 32, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2008:i:01:p:216-231_00 is not listed on IDEAS
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, .
"Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
1999-29, Claremont Colleges.
- Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 216-231, March.
- BROWN Jr., WILLIAM O. & BURDEKIN, RICHARD C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 216-231, March.
- Yuanhua Feng & Zhichao Guo & Christian Peitz & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "A tree-form constant market share model for growth causes in international trade based on multi-level classification," Working Papers 42, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Thomas Gries, 2013. "Changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis," Working Papers 72, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua, 2013. "Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 474-483.
- Yuanhua Feng & Zhichao Guo & Christian Peitz & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "A tree-form constant market share analysis for modelling growth causes in international trade," Working Papers 37, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "Impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany," Working Papers 36, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.