Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Zhichao Guo

    ()
    (Beijing Technology and Business University)

  • Yuanhua Feng

    ()
    (University of Paderborn)

  • Thomas Gries

    ()
    (University of Paderborn)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by China's accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China's exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China's exports to Germany and Germany's imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China's exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany's imports from the world in that year. But China's market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://groups.uni-paderborn.de/wp-wiwi/RePEc/pdf/ciepap/WP72.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics in its series Working Papers CIE with number 72.

as in new window
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:72

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Warburger Str. 100, 33098 Paderborn
Phone: 05251/05251/60-2108
Fax: 05251/60-3205
Email:
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-paderborn.de/center/cie/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Agri-food trade; structural breaks; China's accession to WTO; financial crisis; change of trade relationship financial crisis of 2008; growth causes; structural breaks;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," Claremont Colleges Working Papers, Claremont Colleges 1999-29, Claremont Colleges.
  2. Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2010. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products," Working Papers CIE 32, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  3. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2009. "Trade, globalization and the financial crisis," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 4(nov).
  4. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
  5. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.
  7. Wang, Zhi, 2003. "The impact of China's WTO accession on patterns of world trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, January.
  8. Walter Kramer & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2002. "Testing for Structural Changes in the Presence of Long Memory," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(3), pages 235-242, December.
  9. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
  10. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
  11. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
  12. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  13. Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WP-WiWi-Info).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.