Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation
AbstractThis paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve significantly the forecasting accuracy of output and inflation in a simple vector autoregression framework. The results display only one notable improvement to the forecasts with the addition of perfect information on the financial aggregates—future information on credit growth helps improve the prediction accuracy of real output growth. The improvement is most noticeable during the early 1990s recession. Second, we test whether the financial aggregates are important explanators within single-equation models that are more rigorously fitted to the data. We find only one instance in which an aggregate helps explain the variation in either real output growth or inflation—that is, the growth in credit helps explain the growth in real output in a particular specification of the output model. This finding, though, is sensitive to the choice of foreign output proxy. In sum, we conclude that while credit may have some useful information in times of financial restructuring it is unlikely that there is information in financial aggregates that is exploitable systematically for predicting either real output growth or inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 97-8.
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9704, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996.
"The information content of financial aggregates in Australia,"
96-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996. "The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9606, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Charles H. Whiteman & William Roberds, 1990.
"Monetary aggregates as monetary targets: a statistical investigation,"
90-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H, 1992. "Monetary Aggregates as Monetary Targets: A Statistical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 141-61, May.
- Gruen, David & Romalis, John & Chandra, Naveen, 1999.
"The Lags of Monetary Policy,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 280-94, September.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997.
"Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory (ed.), 1997. "Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226503097, July.
- Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84.
- Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
- Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.