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Modeling inflation dynamics in a conflict economy

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  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

Research Problem: The primary purpose of the paper is to set up a macroeconomic model that depict domestic inflation dynamics in a conflict economy impeded by parallel market for foreign exchange and internal political conflict. Research methodology: To investigate domestic inflation sensitivity to macro variables time-varying coefficient estimation approach employed on monthly data from Sudan during the period from January 2008 to December2013. Results: While domestic money growth (government spending) is the main driver of domestic inflation,the increasing role of parallel market for foreign exchange and imported inflation on domestic inflation reveal increasing sensitivity of the economy to external shocks. Also indicated that our model based estimates of domestic inflation rate is about 22% above the officially announced inflation rate. Recommendations: To control domestic inflation it is essential to control growth in domestic money creation and adopt more flexible official foreign exchange rate that enables inflation trageting policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Onour, Ibrahim, 2015. "Modeling inflation dynamics in a conflict economy," MPRA Paper 63527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naveen Chandra & Ellis W. Tallman, 1997. "Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    3. Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996. "The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9606, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    6. Chhibber, Ajay & Cottani, Joaquin & Firuzabadi, Reza & Walton, Michael, 1989. "Inflation, price controls, and fiscal adjustment in Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 192, The World Bank.
    7. Anselm London, 1989. "Money, Inflation and Adjustment Policy in Africa: Some Further Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 87-111.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin-Zhou Qi & Zhong Ning & Meng Qin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 779-799, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; parallel market; money growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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