Financial Market Variables Do Not Predict Real Activity
AbstractThe past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. The authors then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible: either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects or they (collectively) have failed in their efforts to measure monetary policy. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.
Volume (Year): 36 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://ei.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010.
"Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests,"
Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & N. Pittis & S. Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past:Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1660306, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999.
"A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output,"
9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Rothman, P. & Dijk, D.J.C. van & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Phillip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 0012, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009.
"Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
- Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "A "Working" Solution to the Question of Nominal GDP Targeting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 802, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 Jan 2013.
- Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84.
- Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
- Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "On the propagation of the fluctuations of stock returns on growth: is the global effect important?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 487-502, August.
- Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 801, Boston College Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.