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Financial Market Variables Do Not Predict Real Activity

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  • Thoma, Mark A
  • Gray, Jo Anna

Abstract

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. The authors then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible: either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects or they (collectively) have failed in their efforts to measure monetary policy. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 36 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 522-39

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:36:y:1998:i:4:p:522-39

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Cited by:
  1. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "A "Working" Solution to the Question of Nominal GDP Targeting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 802, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 Jan 2013.
  2. Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
  3. Phillip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 0012, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  4. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 801, Boston College Department of Economics.
  8. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "On the propagation of the fluctuations of stock returns on growth: is the global effect important?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 487-502, August.
  9. Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84.

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