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Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy

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  • Michael T. Belongia

    (University of Mississippi)

  • Peter N. Ireland

    ()
    (Boston College)

Abstract

Over the last twenty-five years, a set of influential studies has placed interest rates at the heart of analyses that interpret and evaluate monetary policies. In light of this work, the Federal Reserve’s recent policy of "quantitative easing," with its goal of affecting the supply of liquid assets, appears as a radical break from standard practice. Superlative (Divisia) measures of money, however, often help in forecasting movements in key macroeconomic variables, and the statistical fit of a structural vector autoregression deteriorates significantly if such measures of money are excluded when identifying monetary policy shocks. These results cast doubt on the adequacy of conventional models that focus on interest rates alone. They also highlight that all monetary disturbances have an important "quantitative" component, which is captured by movements in a properly measured monetary aggregate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 801.

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Date of creation: 18 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:801

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Keywords: quantitative easing; interest rates; Divisia index; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting 'M' back in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tatom, John, 2011. "Monetary policy in disarray," MPRA Paper 34607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Jia & Mattson, Ryan S. & van den Noort, Jeff, 2012. "The new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates: design, construction, and data sources," MPRA Paper 38905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Barnett, William A., 2012. "Getting it Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016915.
  8. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2012. "The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis," NBER Working Papers 17885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Thoma, Mark A & Gray, Jo Anna, 1998. "Financial Market Variables Do Not Predict Real Activity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 522-39, October.
  10. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  11. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones, 2011. "A comprehensive revision of the U.S. monetary services (divisia) indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 325-360.
  12. Laidler, David, 1997. "Notes on the Microfoundations of Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1213-23, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Marcelle Chauvet, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. John A. Tatom, 2013. "Globalization and Inflation: A Swiss Perspective," NFI Working Papers 2013-WP-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

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