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Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator

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  • Jan Grossarth-Maticek
  • Johannes Mayr

Abstract

Die Studie untersucht, in wie weit neben den klassischen monatlichen Konjunkturindikatoren, wie dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex, der Industrieproduktion oder den Auftragseingängen in der Industrie, auch die Medienberichterstattung über die konjunkturelle Entwicklung selbst als Indikator der realen Konjunktur dienen kann. Es werden Indikatoren auf Basis von Medienberichten generiert und bezüglich ihrer Eigenschaft als Prognoseinstrumente der konjunkturellen Entwicklung analysiert. Ein Vergleich mit dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex zeigt, dass die auf Medienberichte basierenden Indikatoren durchaus Prognosequalitäten für reale gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklungen aufweisen können.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
Issue (Month): 07 (04)
Pages: 17-29

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:07:p:17-29

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Keywords: Konjunkturindikator; Konjunktur; Kommunikationsmedien; Prognose; Probit-Modell; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Macroeconomics 0004005, EconWPA.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, May.
  4. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(1), pages 22-43, January.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  6. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
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