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Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator

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  • Jan Grossarth-Maticek
  • Johannes Mayr

Abstract

Die Studie untersucht, in wie weit neben den klassischen monatlichen Konjunkturindikatoren, wie dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex, der Industrieproduktion oder den Auftragseingängen in der Industrie, auch die Medienberichterstattung über die konjunkturelle Entwicklung selbst als Indikator der realen Konjunktur dienen kann. Es werden Indikatoren auf Basis von Medienberichten generiert und bezüglich ihrer Eigenschaft als Prognoseinstrumente der konjunkturellen Entwicklung analysiert. Ein Vergleich mit dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex zeigt, dass die auf Medienberichte basierenden Indikatoren durchaus Prognosequalitäten für reale gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklungen aufweisen können.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
Issue (Month): 07 (04)
Pages: 17-29

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:07:p:17-29

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Keywords: Konjunkturindikator; Konjunktur; Kommunikationsmedien; Prognose; Probit-Modell; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles - An Assessment of Properties," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315.
  3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(1), pages 22-43, January.
  6. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Tobias Thomas & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Do Media Data Help to Predict German Industrial Production?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1393, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle: A comparative study for Germany and Switzerland," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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