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Sektorale Prognosen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe

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  • Anna Scharschmidt
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

Abstract

Systematische Konjunkturprognosen auf sektoraler Ebene sind sowohl in der Praxis als auch in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur rar. Der vorliegende Beitrag prognostiziert die Wachstumsraten von 22 Wirtschaftszweigen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Darunter befinden sich zentrale Branchen wie der Maschinenbau, die chemische Industrie und die Nahrungsmittelbranche. Als Indikatoren werden alle regelmäßig verwendeten Fragen des ifo Konjunkturtests auf Branchenebene verwendet. Diese enthalten neben den bekanntesten Fragen nach Geschäftslage und -erwartungen auch Informationen über Preise, Produktion, Lagerhaltung und Exporte. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass mit Hilfe der ifo-Indikatoren die Prognose in allen Branchen gegenüber einem autoregressiven Benchmark verbessert werden kann.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
Issue (Month): 22 (November)
Pages: 27-35

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:64:y:2011:i:22:p:27-35

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Keywords: Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Branchenentwicklung; Prognose;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

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