Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany

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Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany

Author Info

Chi-Sang Tam (Market Research Division, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong)
Ip-Wing Yu (Market Research Division, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong)

Abstract

The movement of sovereign yields is important for both investment and risk management. This paper applies a method that was first developed by Diebold et al. (2006) to model the sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany. By including observable macroeconomic variables as well as the latent factors of the yield curve, we find evidence of a strong interaction between the yield curve and macro-variables in the US and Germany but not in Japan. We also estimate the dynamic conditional correlations of the latent factors to reveal the cross-country correlations of the bond markets. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 82-91
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:82-91

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References listed on IDEAS
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Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2007. "The comovement of US and German bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 172-182. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 629-656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Driessen, J. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T., 2000. "Common factors in international bond returns," Discussion Paper 91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 405, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]

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