To SVAR or to SVEC? On the transmission of capital buffer shocks to the real economy

Shocks to banks’ capital buffer can impact the real economy via a number of channels. We investigate the transmission of aggregate capital buffer shocks to loans, prices and economic activity in Poland over the period 2002−2015 using multivariate time series techniques. Impulse-response functions from both SVAR and SVEC models indicate an increase in GDP and loan levels in the aftermath of a positive capital buffer shock. Although previous literature predominantly focuses on SVAR analyses, only the SVEC-based simulation yields economically reliable long-run estimates of the impact. Our long-run relationships indicate that capital policy may have a lasting impact on the real variables, unlike monetary policy.